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Public Opinion on Coronavirus and The Vote: Navigator Update
With election season nearing an ending, both Biden and Trump voters say it is more important to count every vote in the presidential election than to quickly announce the results. Americans are pessimistic about the direction of the country today, and the pandemic trumps the economy as the most important election issue for voters.
Key takeaway Majorities of both Biden and Trump voters say it is more important to count every single vote in the presidential election than to immediately announce the results; Americans are pessimistic about the direction of the country today and feel things have gotten worse since five years ago; The pandemic trumps the economy as the most important election issue for voters.
Welcome to NAVIGATOR – a project designed to better understand the American public’s views on issues of the day and help advocates, elected officials, and other interested parties understand the language, imagery, and messaging needed to make and win key policy arguments.
This release features findings from a national online survey of 2,833 self-reported 2020 voters conducted October 30-November 3, 2020.
Key takeaways
- Majorities of both Biden and Trump voters say it is more important to count every single vote in the presidential election than to immediately announce the results.
- Americans are pessimistic about the direction of the country today and feel things have gotten worse since five years ago.
- The pandemic trumps the economy as the most important election issue for voters.
What We Did
Majorities Say It Is More Important to Count Every Vote than to Immediately Announce Results
Four in five Biden voters agree more it is important to take the time to count every single vote than to immediately announce results, while more than half of Trump voters say the same.
Voters – Especially Biden Voters – See This as the “Most Important Election” of Their Lifetimes
Seven in ten Biden voters “strongly agree” that the 2020 presidential election is “the most important election in my lifetime” compared to just 58% of Trump voters who say the same.
- Strong agreement, however, is higher among Biden voters (70%) than Trump voters (58%).
Three in Four Are Confident in Fair and Accurate Count
While at least seven in ten believe both the results overall and their own ballot will be counted correctly and fairly, Biden voters are 13 points more confident in the results overall and 7 points more confident about their ballot.
Biden Voters More Likely to Have Attended a Demonstration, Donated, or Posted Online about Politics over Past 4 Years
While most Biden and Trump voters report having taken some kind of political action since 2016, differences appear on several metrics: while 37% of Biden voters have donated to a political candidate or issue advocacy organization since 2016, only 20% of Trump voters say the same.
Voters Enter Election Day Unhappy with Country’s Direction
Two in three Americans say the country generally is “off on the wrong track,” including more than nine in ten Biden voters. However, a majority of Trump voters say the country is “headed in the right direction.”
Voters Rate Economy Negatively and Say Things are Going Worse Than in Pre-Trump Era
Trump voters are driving the share who view the economy positively (66% excellent/good) and who say things in the United States are going better than they were five years ago (71%).
Voters Cite Coronavirus Over Economy as Most Important Election Issue With Major Divide By Vote Choice
Four in five Biden voters say the pandemic is/was more important to their vote for President, and nearly the same share of Trump voters say the economy is more important to their vote.
Two Thirds of Voters See Pandemic Situation Worsening, Including Even a Third of Trump Supporters
Among both Biden and Trump voters, a majority know someone who has been infected with coronavirus. However, while nine in ten Biden voters say the pandemic is worse now than it has been in recent months, just a third of Trump voters say the same.
Welcome to NAVIGATOR – a project designed to better understand the American public’s views on issues of the day and help advocates, elected officials, and other interested parties understand the language, imagery, and messaging needed to make and win key policy arguments.
This release features findings from two national online surveys of 1,450 registered voters, included 150-interview oversamples each among African Americans, Hispanics, Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders. Surveys conducted July 9-14, 2020 and August 24-27, 2020.
Key takeaways
- Most Americans desire “major change,” and believe various reforms such as elimination of the filibuster, voting rights reforms, and even some SCOTUS reform would have a positive impact on government.
- Despite decades of weakening trust, many Americans remain optimistic about the future. Democracy reform advocates can break through by combining optimism and historical context to discuss the need for reform.
- The specifics matter less than the bigger picture. Navigating thin levels of awareness and understanding requires using accessible language such as framing the filibuster as a “loophole.”
- Messaging can be multifaceted. Democrats respond to COVID urgency, and Republicans respond to messages around gridlock and checks and balances. Many voters respond to messaging around elitism, and Black voters respond to reform’s historical context.
“Major” Change Seems Necessary, Even To Republicans
Americans – Even Republicans – Perceive Filibuster, Campaign Finance, Voting, Redistricting, And SCOTUS Reforms As Potentially Beneficial
Electoral Reforms Are Viewed as Potentially Positive Among Non-Republicans; Even Views on Court Expansion More Positive Than Negative
Taken Together, These Proposals Represent Major Changes To Half The Electorate, More So With Those Who Initially Want Major Change
The “Filibuster” And Other Reforms Are Often Met With Confusion
Framing The Filibuster As A “Loophole” Helps More Voters to Connect the Dots on Reforms
On Filibuster, Mitch McConnell Could Be A Proofpoint Of Both Bad Actor & Structural Obstacle
Most Reject the False Choice Between Changing Our Leaders And Making Structural Change To Our Broader System
Framing the Debate Around How Fragile Government Institutions “Have Become” Resonates More Broadly Than Saying “They’ve Always Been”
Reform Arguments In Full
Overall, Inequality, COVID, And Gridlock Frames Work Best With Some GOP Pushback On COVID; Historical Context Works Well With Black Voters
Text Highlighting Exercise Shows That Emphasizing Inequality, Politicians’ Greed, and the Need to Restore Balance Resonate Most
Checks & Balances Argument In Particular Resonates With Non-Democrats Who Believe These Reforms Are Important
Welcome to NAVIGATOR – a project designed to better understand the American public’s views on issues of the day and help advocates, elected officials, and other interested parties understand the language, imagery, and messaging needed to make and win key policy arguments.
This release features findings from a national online survey of 1,000 registered voters conducted October 15-19, 2020.
Key takeaways
- Three in five say Trump has not done enough to discourage white supremacist violence in the United States.
- Half of Americans say Republicans in Congress have not shown enough independence from President Trump and say they are best described as “yes men” who are “showing no backbone” and “putting country over party.”
- Majorities of Americans overall – and specifically parents – say if cases of coronavirus continue to rise in the winter, schools should be fully remote.
Americans Continue to Say Trump Made Disorder Worse
Among independents, there has been an 8-point increase since late September in the share who say Trump has “made the situation worse,” and there has been a 4-point increase in the share who blame Trump more than Democrats.
Three in Five Say Trump Has Not Done Enough to Discourage White Supremacist Violence in the U.S.
A majority of Americans say Trump has not done enough to discourage white supremacist violence while president.
- 74% of Black Americans and 70% of Hispanic Americans say he has not done enough.
After Initial Dip, Support for Protests Against Racial Injustice Has Remained Steady Over Last Two Months
Nearly three in five continue to support the protests in the country against racial injustice, with net support stabilizing around +20 over the course of the summer
- Among independents, 51% support the protests, while only 34% oppose them.
Majority Continue to Believe Trump Has Committed a Crime While President
Consistent with last year’s November Navigator poll, a majority believe that Trump has committed a crime while president, including nearly two in five who say he “definitely has.”
- Nearly half of independents (47%) believe Trump has committed a crime at some point his presidency.
Trump’s Presidency: “Self-Absorbed” and “Chaotic”
In the last week, the share who say Trump’s presidency has been “self-absorbed” has grown a net 8 points, and the share who say it has been chaotic has grown a net 9 points.
- Among independents, 73% say “self-absorbed” and 68% say “chaotic” describe how Trump is handling his job as president.
Half Say Republicans Have Not Shown Enough Independence from Trump; See Them as “Yes Men” With “No Backbone”
Half say Republicans in Congress have not shown enough independence from Trump, while just one in three say they have struck the right balance. Top descriptors include “yes men,” “no backbone,” and “putting party over country.”
Majorities Have Negative Impressions of Trump’s Rallies and Say He Should Stop Holding Them
More than half say they have a negative impression of Trump’s rallies and feel he should stop holding them.
- Intensity of opposition is high: 44% have a “very negative” impression of his rallies and 42% feel “strongly” he should stop holding rallies.
More Oppose Than Support SCOTUS Nomination Before Election Day
Just two in five report watching “a lot” or “some” of Barrett’s hearings – and a plurality continue to oppose her appointment, saying whoever wins the election should be responsible for choosing the new Justice.
Mix of Views on Best Approach for Schools, Though Few are Ready for a Return to Normal
Two in five say schools should not be open and nearly the same say schools should use a hybrid model.
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- Fewer parents (29%) than Americans overall (38%) support schools being partially open right now: two in five (39%) say that schools should not be open, while one in three (32%) say schools should be fully open.
If Cases Continue to Rise in Winter, Majority Say Schools Should Close Down and Move to Full Remote Learning
More than half say if cases continue to rise, schools should close down and move to fully remote learning.
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- Among parents, nearly half (49%) support moving to fully remote learning if cases continue to rise in the winter.
Most Say There Have Been “Many” or “Some” School Outbreaks But Say This Is to Be Expected
Three in five say there have been “many” or “some” coronavirus outbreaks in schools in the United States, but half say this is to be expected and that schools “had to reopen at some point.”
Mitch McConnell Remains Disliked By Majority of Americans
Mitch McConnell’s numbers on “unfavorable” are tied for their highest point in our tracking since March at 51%, with his net favorability at -25.
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- Among independents, 48% have an unfavorable view of McConnell while only 14% have a favorable view.
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Biden and Trump Voters Agree Michael Jordan is the Best Basketball Player of All Time
Despite LeBron James recently winning his fourth championship, majorities of Biden and Trump voters say Jordan is the greatest player of all time, while less than one in six of each say that LeBron is the best of all time.
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- Among men ages 18-34, 27% think LeBron is the best basketball player of all time.
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