Poll: Project 2025 in the Battleground

This Navigator Research report contains polling data on the share of battleground constituents who are familiar with Project 2025, including support for it generally and for its specific policies, and which policies battleground constituents see as most likely to be implemented in a conservative administration.

Battleground constituents oppose Project 2025 by 30 points, though two in five are not yet familiar with it.

61 percent of battleground constituents report having seen, read, or heard “some” about Project 2025, with 26 percent who report having heard “a lot.” Most of what battleground constituents are hearing about the project are generally negative (19 percent), including that it is a threat to democracy (15 percent), frightening (15 percent), and extreme (12 percent). 

• Project 2025 is initially underwater by 40 points (18 percent support – 58 percent oppose), including among over nine in ten Democrats (net -90; 2 percent support – 92 percent oppose), nearly half of independents (net -27; 21 percent support – 48 percent oppose), and is nearly evenly split among Republicans (net +5; 32 percent support – 27 percent oppose). Black battleground constituents have a particularly high opposition trailing only behind Democrats with 78 percent of Black battleground constituents disapproving of Project 2025.

Trump having total control over the Department of Justice leads among the most concerning potential outcomes of Project 2025.

The most concerning policies outlined in Project 2025 include allowing the president to have total control over the Department of Justice, allowing the government to monitor pregnancies and potentially prosecute them if they miscarry, and eliminating health care protections for people with pre-existing conditions. Over one in three battleground constituents feel the most concerning policy of Project 2025 is “allowing the president to have total control over the Department of Justice” (36 percent most concerning, 58 percent top three most concerning). Other concerning policies include; 

• Allowing the government to monitor people’s pregnancies and to potentially prosecute them if they miscarry (13 percent most concerning, 46 percent top three most concerning);
• Eliminating healthcare protections for people with pre-existing conditions (12 percent most concerning, 35 percent top three most concerning); and,
• Allowing the president to fire thousands of federal civil servants and replace them with their own loyalists (8 percent most concerning, 34 percent top three most concerning).

Most battleground constituents believe their Republican incumbent would support the policies outlined in Project 2025.

51 percent of battleground constituents living in districts with a Republican incumbent believe it is at least somewhat likely their Republican incumbent supports policies outlined in Project 2025. The policies constituents believe are most likely to be enacted if Trump is elected are “allowing the president to fire thousands of federal civil servants and replace them with their own loyalists” (40 percent), “allowing the president to have total control over the Department of Justice” (35 percent), “cutting taxes for the ultra-wealthy and corporations” (26 percent), and “eliminating the National Weather Service” (25 percent). 

There is a clear split on the likelihood of a national abortion ban under a Trump administration, with 16 percent of battleground constituents believing an abortion ban is one of the most likely outcomes, and 16 percent believing an abortion ban would be one of the least likely outcomes.

• After reading the policies outlined in Project 2025, two in three battleground constituents continue to oppose Project 2025 (net -39; 25 percent support – 64 percent oppose), including three in five independents (61 percent) and even one in three Republicans (33 percent). 
• In an open-end question asking about the top concerns constituents have about Project 2025, 20 percent had a general negative reaction to it, while 24 percent said they were concerned by its impact on presidential power (16 percent) or government overreach (8 percent).