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A credible, trusted message-development voice for progressives in policy debates, providing the best words, images, elements, phrases and frames to ensure progressives win the argument.
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Why Blaming China For The Pandemic Probably Won’t Help Trump Win
Tuesday, July 29, 2020
A Navigator poll from late April, for instance, tested multiple narratives about who’s to blame for the pandemic, asking voters which of two statements they agreed with more even if they didn’t fully agree with either. When forced to choose between a statement that placed all the blame on Trump and one that put all the blame on China, respondents were essentially evenly divided, 49 to 51, which is well within the poll’s confidence interval. A statement that blamed both Trump and China got slightly more support, at 54 percent. This suggests that at least some voters are open to an argument that gives China a significant share of the blame for the pandemic.
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From our latest:
Newsmax, Fox, and OANN viewers are twice as likely to say they are “unlikely to get vaccinated” as CNN and MSNBC viewers, and very conservative Republicans are nearly three times as likely as liberal Democrats to say the same.
Nearly half of Americans say they personally know someone who has received the coronavirus vaccine.
Something to watch in our race breakdowns: Black Americans (73%) are the least likely to say they know someone who has received the vaccine.
Three in five say the “worst is yet to come” in the pandemic while only a quarter say the “worst is over.”
Across party lines, pluralities agree the worst is yet to come, including 70% of Democrats, 55% of independents, and 45% of Republicans.
Since March 2020, the share who know someone who has had coronavirus has increased more than 8-fold.
Groups most likely to know someone who has been infected:
Hispanic Americans (87%)
Midwesterners (81%)
Service industry workers (81%)
Women (79%)
NEW POLLING:
- Three in four know someone who has had coronavirus.
- Whether or not someone is likely to get vaccinated is
divided by partisanship, ideology, and news consumption.
- The public feels the most recent economic relief bill was not enough.
https://navigatorresearch.org/public-opinion-updates-on-coronavirus-and-the-economy/
In late March 2020, @NavigatorSurvey found that just 9 percent knew someone personally that had been infected with coronavirus.
10 months later, it is now *76 percent* who know someone who has been infected.
Three in five Americans oppose Trump issuing a preemptive self-pardon before the end of his term as president.
Even among 2020 Trump voters, only 41% support Trump preemptively pardoning himself before leaving office.
More than half of Americans support both removing Trump from office now and banning him from running for president again.
Two-thirds of Americans say Trump didn’t do enough to stop the violence and disapprove of his response.
Just half of Republicans say Trump did enough to stop the violence (50%) and less than half approve of his response (46%).
Americans universally condemn Trump supporters’ breaking into the Capitol Building.
Three in four Americans “strongly oppose” Trump supporters breaking into the Capitol Building, including 69% of independents and 57% of Republicans.
NEW POLLING:
More than 4 in 5 Americans oppose Trump supporters breaking into the Capitol
Majorities oppose Trump running for president again or pardoning himself
Americans worry about the potential for more violence.
https://navigatorresearch.org/public-reaction-to-the-storming-of-the-capitol/
NEW DATA: Two in three Americans support canceling at least some student loan debt.
Among those who currently have student loan debt, 90% support some cancellation (75% strongly support). Even among those who who don't have student debt, support remains high at 60% overall.
The pandemic has presented many difficulties for Americans: the ones that weigh the most heavily include the inability to socially interact in public, the impact on mental health, and feeling unsafe during day-to-day activities, like shopping for groceries.
65% of the public have concerns with the way Trump and Republicans in Congress have handled the development and distribution of the vaccine. Their top concerns are partisan politics to prevent a smooth rollout, and the spread of disinformation.
Three in five Americans (60%) say they are likely to get a coronavirus vaccine, while just 31% are unlikely to do so. Significantly more Democrats say they are likely to get vaccinated (70%) than Republicans (51%).
More than half of Americans are supportive of new lockdowns on non-essential businesses until cases get under control when new outbreaks occur in their community (53%), including 57% of independents.
Pessimism about the pandemic is also on the rise: 60% of Americans now say that “the worst is yet to come” with the pandemic, mirroring the highest share since the second surge of new cases over the summer.
By a 17-point margin, two in three Americans (65%) see the pandemic as the most important priority for President-elect Biden and the new Congress.
Nearly three in four Americans (73%) know someone personally who has been infected with coronavirus - up 14 points since early November. Those in the Midwest, college-educated Americans, and Hispanic Americans are most likely to know someone infected.
NEW DATA:
• 73% of Americans now know someone infected with coronavirus, a sharp uptick since Election Day
• The pandemic is seen as the most important issue for Biden and Congress to focus on
• 3 in 5 Americans say they are likely to get vaccinated
https://navigatorresearch.org/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-update/
The top reasons Americans believe why Republicans have been unwilling to recognize Biden’s victory: disbelief in the results, wanting to make Trump happy, and doing so in order to appease their base that supports Trump.
Just 36% of Americans think that Republicans have acted appropriately in their reaction to the results of the election, while about half believe the same of Democrats (49%).
39% of Republicans say the election reduced their confidence in the Electoral College.
Nearly half of Americans (48%) say amending the Constitution to have the popular vote winner become president would have a positive impact on government (just 25% say negative impact).
Most Americans (54%) think Trump’s claims about voter fraud are not justified, including a similar share among independents.
We asked people what positive things they have recently heard about Joe Biden, and the public is responding positively to his focus on addressing the coronavirus pandemic and his recent selection of Cabinet appointments.
Biden is earning high marks for his handling of the transition, which are above water by 19 points (56% approve - 37% disapprove). Meanwhile, Trump’s job ratings are net underwater by 12 points (43% approve - 55% disapprove).
More than three in five Americans (61%) believe Trump should concede the election now, including a majority of independents (56%) and even one third of Republicans.
NEW POLLING:
• Americans increasingly want Trump to concede the election now
• A majority of the public approves of Biden’s handling of the transition
• Only one in three think Republicans have acted appropriately in their reaction to the results
https://navigatorresearch.org/reaction-to-the-post-election-environment/
NEW today:
• A majority of Trump-to-Biden voters and New Biden voters 45+ (52% each) said “honesty and good character” was one of the most important factors in their vote choice.
• A third of younger New Biden voters 18-44 (33%) said “change” was one of the most important.
NEW today:
Trump-to-Biden voters are on average less progressive than New Democrats and Biden voters overall.
Still, more than 60% of Trump-to-Biden voters agree with the more progressive of two statements on a range of issues.
ICYMI today:
Navigator's latest analysis seeks to understand several critical voting blocs in the 2020 election:
• Trump-to-Biden voters (3% of the sample).
• New Democrats (11% of the sample).
• New Trump voters (9% of the sample).
https://navigatorresearch.org/public-opinion-on-the-vote-2020-election-poll-results/
Analysis of voters who say they voted for Biden, but a Republican down ballot, via @NavigatorSurvey
- R+21 in identification
- 55% moderate
- 55% suburban
- 65% income >50k
- 71% very unfav to DJT
And
- relatively progressive on key policy debates
A resounding majority of Americans (72%) view Biden as winning the election.
• Before midday on Nov. 7th, 65% described Biden as winning
• This increased to 74% in interviews conducted after the Associated Press and others called Pennsylvania
Poll conducted Nov. 6-8, 2020.
NEW Today >> Americans increasingly say it is time for Trump to concede.
• In interviews conducted before noon on November 7th, just 33% said it was time for Trump to concede
• After, more than half (51%) said he should concede
Poll conducted Nov. 6-8, 2020.
NEW POLL Today:
• 3 in 5 Americans think Donald Trump just wants to win the election, prioritizing that outcome over having an accurate count of the votes
• Most Americans believe Joe Biden truly wants an honest and accurate count of the votes
NEW POLL Today:
• 3 in 5 Americans disapprove of the way Trump has responded to recent election results
• Nearly 2 in 3 Americans approve of Biden’s response
• Among Trump voters, 29% approve of Biden’s response to the election results
@NavigatorSurvey (survey continued)
** By 26-points (33-59%) Americans DISAPPROVE of the way Trump is responding the election results.
** By 37-points (63-26%) Americans APPROVE of the way Joe Biden is responding to the election results.
NEW SURVEY
** 78% of Americans (including 53% of Trump voters) think BIDEN is winning the election. This is up from 52% last week
** 22% of Americans (including 36% of Trump voters) think TRUMP is winning the election
(From @NavigatorSurvey)
NEW:
A majority of Americans believe Biden wants an accurate vote count, while an even larger majority says Trump "just wants to win."
Only about a third of Americans believe Trump "wants and honest and accurate count of the votes."
Poll conducted Nov 4-5. 2020.
NEW:
At the time of our poll, 73% felt the results of the presidential election would be clear within the next week.
A plurality said "in the next day or two."
Poll conducted Nov 4-5.
NEW Today:
Even before this morning's news, 70% of Americans felt Biden was winning.
Only 30% of Americans thought Trump was winning, with a third of that group also saying results were too close to feel certain.
Poll conducted Nov 4-5, 2020.
Newly released results from Navigator Research, weighted to 2020 results (currently an estimate of 51-47 Biden among voters) finds the public largely perceive Biden to be winning, including many who voted for Trump who agree.
NEW POLLING RELEASE TODAY:
• Seven in ten voters saw Joe Biden on track to win the election prior to this morning’s updates
• Both Biden and Trump voters support counting every vote, even if it takes time
https://navigatorresearch.org/public-opinion-on-the-vote-navigator-update/
Among both Biden and Trump voters, a majority know someone who has been infected with coronavirus.
However, while 9 in 10 Biden voters say the pandemic is worse now than it has been in recent months, just a third of Trump voters say the same.
Voters cite coronavirus over the economy as the most important election issue, with a major divide by vote choice.
• 85% of Biden voters say the pandemic is/was more important to their vote for President
• A similar share of Trump voters cite the economy as more important
Overall, most Americans rate the economy poorly and feel things are worse compared to five years ago.
Trump voters are driving the share who view the economy positively (66% excellent/good) and who say things in the United States are going better than in the pre-Trump era (71%).
2 in 3 Americans say the country generally is “off on the wrong track.”
• Biden voters almost universally say the country is on the wrong track.
• Trump voters are more mixed. Among this group, 58% say the country is “headed in the right direction” (30% wrong track).
Most Biden and Trump voters have taken some kind of political action since 2016, however a few key differences appear.
• 21% of Biden voters have donated to a political candidate
• Only 14% of Trump voters say the same
The vast majority of voters feel that the 2020 presidential election is “the most important” election in their lifetime.
Strong agreement, however, is higher among Biden voters (70%) than Trump voters (58%).
While at least 7 in 10 believe both the results overall and their own ballot will be counted correctly and fairly, Biden voters are 13 points more confident in the results overall and 7 points more confident about their ballot.
4 in 5 Biden voters say it is more important to take the time to count every single vote than to immediately announce results.
Well over half of Trump voters say the same.
NEW POLLING:
• Both Biden and Trump voters prioritize counting every vote over having immediate results
• Americans enter Election Day pessimistic about the direction of the country
• The pandemic trumps the economy as the most important election issue
https://navigatorresearch.org/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-and-the-vote-navigator-update-12/
Today, we present *preliminary* results from our first ever “Entrance Poll.”
This poll features findings from a nationwide survey of 2,833 self-reported 2020 voters, with interviews conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 3, 2020.
https://navigatorresearch.org/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-and-the-vote-navigator-update-12/
NEW >> Preliminary entrance poll of 2,800+ from @NavigatorSurvey:
—64% country on wrong track
—58% things are worse than when Trump took office
—65% know someone with covid, 63% say pandemic is getting worse
—72% say take time to count all votes, including 57% of Trump voters
More than half of Americans say schools should close down and move to fully remote learning if cases continue to rise,
Among parents, nearly half (49%) support moving to fully remote learning if cases continue to rise in the winter. #NavigatorLovesTheKids
Three in five Americans say there have been “many” or “some” coronavirus outbreaks in schools in the United States
However, half say this is to be expected and that schools “had to reopen at some point.”
Four in five say schools should either be entirely remote or operating under a hybrid model.
Fewer parents (29%) than Americans overall (38%) support schools being partially open right now. #NavigatorLovesTheKids
Mitch McConnell’s numbers on “unfavorable” are tied for their highest point in our tracking since March at 51%, with his net favorability at -25 .
Among independents, 48% have an unfavorable view of McConnell while only 14% have a favorable view.
Our latest poll continues to show the pandemic is America’s top priority for the President and Congress to be focused on by a double-digit margin.
In our latest poll:
Biden and Trump are tied among people who attend religious services at least somewhat regularly.
This case is similar to our results showing Christian voters tied in their vote choice.
Featured polls
Three in four Americans now know someone who has had coronavirus and more than a third know someone who has died from complications related to it; as most have received checks from the economic relief passed last month, the public largely sees the bill as not doing enough.
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As Biden’s inauguration approaches, majorities of Americans support ending gerrymandering, eliminating the filibuster, and abolishing the Electoral College.
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More than 80 percent of Americans oppose the storming of the U.S. Capitol by Trump supporters and consider themselves “horrified” and “shocked” by the event; majorities of Americans support Trump’s removal from office and oppose him running for president again or pardoning himself before leaving office.
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