2020 Election Poll Results

Friday, November 20, 2020

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A credible, trusted message-development voice for progressives in policy debates, providing the best words, images, elements, phrases and frames to ensure progressives win the argument.

2020 Election Poll Results

Friday, November 20, 2020

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Progressives know that we have the right policy prescriptions, but not always the right framing and language for how to talk about the fights we are engaged in every day. We can win the argument if we know how to make it.

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Our Vision

Progressives know that we have the right policy prescriptions, but not always the right framing and language for how to talk about the fights we are engaged in every day. We can win the argument if we know how to make it.

Join Us.

Sign up to receive regular updates from Navigator.

Featured news

Why Blaming China For The Pandemic Probably Won’t Help Trump Win

Tuesday, July 29, 2020

A Navigator poll from late April, for instance, tested multiple narratives about who’s to blame for the pandemic, asking voters which of two statements they agreed with more even if they didn’t fully agree with either. When forced to choose between a statement that placed all the blame on Trump and one that put all the blame on China, respondents were essentially evenly divided, 49 to 51, which is well within the poll’s confidence interval. A statement that blamed both Trump and China got slightly more support, at 54 percent. This suggests that at least some voters are open to an argument that gives China a significant share of the blame for the pandemic.

Tweets

NEW today:

Trump-to-Biden voters are on average less progressive than New Democrats and Biden voters overall.

Still, more than 60% of Trump-to-Biden voters agree with the more progressive of two statements on a range of issues.

ICYMI today:

Navigator's latest analysis seeks to understand several critical voting blocs in the 2020 election:

• Trump-to-Biden voters (3% of the sample).
• New Democrats (11% of the sample).
• New Trump voters (9% of the sample).

https://navigatorresearch.org/public-opinion-on-the-vote-2020-election-poll-results/

Analysis of voters who say they voted for Biden, but a Republican down ballot, via @NavigatorSurvey

- R+21 in identification
- 55% moderate
- 55% suburban
- 65% income >50k
- 71% very unfav to DJT

And
- relatively progressive on key policy debates

A resounding majority of Americans (72%) view Biden as winning the election.

• Before midday on Nov. 7th, 65% described Biden as winning

• This increased to 74% in interviews conducted after the Associated Press and others called Pennsylvania

Poll conducted Nov. 6-8, 2020.

NEW Today >> Americans increasingly say it is time for Trump to concede.

• In interviews conducted before noon on November 7th, just 33% said it was time for Trump to concede

• After, more than half (51%) said he should concede

Poll conducted Nov. 6-8, 2020.

NEW POLL Today:

• 3 in 5 Americans think Donald Trump just wants to win the election, prioritizing that outcome over having an accurate count of the votes

• Most Americans believe Joe Biden truly wants an honest and accurate count of the votes

NEW POLL Today:

• 3 in 5 Americans disapprove of the way Trump has responded to recent election results

• Nearly 2 in 3 Americans approve of Biden’s response

• Among Trump voters, 29% approve of Biden’s response to the election results

@NavigatorSurvey (survey continued)

** By 26-points (33-59%) Americans DISAPPROVE of the way Trump is responding the election results.

** By 37-points (63-26%) Americans APPROVE of the way Joe Biden is responding to the election results.

NEW SURVEY

** 78% of Americans (including 53% of Trump voters) think BIDEN is winning the election. This is up from 52% last week

** 22% of Americans (including 36% of Trump voters) think TRUMP is winning the election

(From @NavigatorSurvey)

NEW:

A majority of Americans believe Biden wants an accurate vote count, while an even larger majority says Trump "just wants to win."

Only about a third of Americans believe Trump "wants and honest and accurate count of the votes."

Poll conducted Nov 4-5. 2020.

NEW:

At the time of our poll, 73% felt the results of the presidential election would be clear within the next week.

A plurality said "in the next day or two."

Poll conducted Nov 4-5.

NEW Today:

Even before this morning's news, 70% of Americans felt Biden was winning.

Only 30% of Americans thought Trump was winning, with a third of that group also saying results were too close to feel certain.

Poll conducted Nov 4-5, 2020.

Newly released results from Navigator Research, weighted to 2020 results (currently an estimate of 51-47 Biden among voters) finds the public largely perceive Biden to be winning, including many who voted for Trump who agree.

NEW POLLING RELEASE TODAY:

• Seven in ten voters saw Joe Biden on track to win the election prior to this morning’s updates
• Both Biden and Trump voters support counting every vote, even if it takes time

https://navigatorresearch.org/public-opinion-on-the-vote-navigator-update/

Among both Biden and Trump voters, a majority know someone who has been infected with coronavirus.

However, while 9 in 10 Biden voters say the pandemic is worse now than it has been in recent months, just a third of Trump voters say the same.

Voters cite coronavirus over the economy as the most important election issue, with a major divide by vote choice.

• 85% of Biden voters say the pandemic is/was more important to their vote for President
• A similar share of Trump voters cite the economy as more important

Overall, most Americans rate the economy poorly and feel things are worse compared to five years ago.

Trump voters are driving the share who view the economy positively (66% excellent/good) and who say things in the United States are going better than in the pre-Trump era (71%).

2 in 3 Americans say the country generally is “off on the wrong track.”

• Biden voters almost universally say the country is on the wrong track.
• Trump voters are more mixed. Among this group, 58% say the country is “headed in the right direction” (30% wrong track).

Most Biden and Trump voters have taken some kind of political action since 2016, however a few key differences appear.

• 21% of Biden voters have donated to a political candidate
• Only 14% of Trump voters say the same

The vast majority of voters feel that the 2020 presidential election is “the most important” election in their lifetime.

Strong agreement, however, is higher among Biden voters (70%) than Trump voters (58%).

While at least 7 in 10 believe both the results overall and their own ballot will be counted correctly and fairly, Biden voters are 13 points more confident in the results overall and 7 points more confident about their ballot.

4 in 5 Biden voters say it is more important to take the time to count every single vote than to immediately announce results.

Well over half of Trump voters say the same.

NEW POLLING:

• Both Biden and Trump voters prioritize counting every vote over having immediate results
• Americans enter Election Day pessimistic about the direction of the country
• The pandemic trumps the economy as the most important election issue
https://navigatorresearch.org/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-and-the-vote-navigator-update-12/

Today, we present *preliminary* results from our first ever “Entrance Poll.”

This poll features findings from a nationwide survey of 2,833 self-reported 2020 voters, with interviews conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 3, 2020.

https://navigatorresearch.org/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-and-the-vote-navigator-update-12/

NEW >> Preliminary entrance poll of 2,800+ from @NavigatorSurvey:

—64% country on wrong track

—58% things are worse than when Trump took office

—65% know someone with covid, 63% say pandemic is getting worse

—72% say take time to count all votes, including 57% of Trump voters

More than half of Americans say schools should close down and move to fully remote learning if cases continue to rise,

Among parents, nearly half (49%) support moving to fully remote learning if cases continue to rise in the winter. #NavigatorLovesTheKids

Three in five Americans say there have been “many” or “some” coronavirus outbreaks in schools in the United States

However, half say this is to be expected and that schools “had to reopen at some point.”

Four in five say schools should either be entirely remote or operating under a hybrid model.

Fewer parents (29%) than Americans overall (38%) support schools being partially open right now. #NavigatorLovesTheKids

Mitch McConnell’s numbers on “unfavorable” are tied for their highest point in our tracking since March at 51%, with his net favorability at -25 .

Among independents, 48% have an unfavorable view of McConnell while only 14% have a favorable view.

Our latest poll continues to show the pandemic is America’s top priority for the President and Congress to be focused on by a double-digit margin.

In our latest poll:

Biden and Trump are tied among people who attend religious services at least somewhat regularly.

This case is similar to our results showing Christian voters tied in their vote choice.

From our latest survey >> Biden leads Trump in the national presidential vote by 10 points.

Also interesting, Biden leads Trump among Catholic voters and trails only slightly among Protestants.

From our latest poll:

Nearly three in five continue to support the protests in the country against racial injustice, with net support stabilizing around +20 over the course of the summer.

A majority of independents (51%) support the protests, while only 34% oppose them.

In the #GOAT Debate, majorities of both Biden and Trump voters say Michael Jordan is the greatest basketball player of all time.

Among men ages 18-34, 27% think LeBron is the best basketball player of all time.

Still - Congratulations to The King on #4! #GotMoreWorkToDo

Americans on Trump’s rallies: Stop. Drop. Please don’t open up shop.

More than half have a negative impression of Trump’s rallies and feel he should stop holding them.

Note Intensity:
• 44% have a “very negative” impression of his rallies
• 42% feel “strongly” he should stop

Americans describing Republicans in our latest poll:

• “Yes men”
• “No backbone”
• “Putting party over country”

(Poll conducted October 15-19, 2020)

Consistent with last year’s November Navigator poll, most Americans - including a plurality of independents - believe that Trump has committed a crime while serving as president.

Nearly two in five say he “definitely has.”

If you think Trump is “self-absorbed,” you can now consider yourself part of #The70Percent (a group which has grown by 8 points since last week).

Among independents, 73% say “self-absorbed” and 68% say “chaotic” describe how Trump is handling his job as president.

NEW today >> A majority of Americans say Trump has not done enough to discourage white supremacist violence while president.

74% of Black Americans and 70% of Hispanic Americans say he has not done enough.

NEW today >> Americans continue to associate Trump with a rise in lawless disorder.

Among independents, there has been an 8-point increase since late September in the share who say Trump has “made the situation worse.”

NEW today:

• Americans say Trump has failed to discourage white supremacist violence
• Americans feel Republicans in Congress have not shown enough independence from Trump
• Majorities favor remote schooling if cases of coronavirus continue to rise
https://navigatorresearch.org/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-and-the-vote-navigator-update-10/

More than two in five say that a Joe Biden presidency will heal some of the country’s divisions and make people more united, while less than a quarter say the same of a second Trump term.

Just one in five Trump voters and Biden voters each say “nearly all” or “a fair amount“ of the people they interact with in daily life are voting for the opposing candidate.

NEW >> Americans have quite different expectations for the election.

The vast majority of Biden voters think the former vice president will probably win.

Trump voters are more likely to say the incumbent president will "definitely" be re-elected.

With 19% of Americans reporting having already voted, 15% say they have done so by mail.

Among Americans 65 and older, 30% say they have already voted by mail, as compared to 8% of 18-44 year-olds and 13% of 45-64 year-olds.

Overall, there has been a 9-point jump since September 29 in the share who plan to vote before Election Day.

Among Americans 65 years old and above, there has been a 12-point jump.

Just a third of Americans intend to vote in person ON Election Day.

A majority intend to vote by mail or in person BEFORE Election Day, or say they have already voted.

Here’s one thing Americans can agree on as Election Day nears.

Across party lines and regardless of intended vote choice, Americans say they will be glad to see the presidential election end.

NEW today:

• More Americans are now planning to vote before Election Day
• A majority of Americans feel a second Trump term will divide the country further
• Americans with mixed feelings on Trump are concerned about him inciting post-election violence
https://navigatorresearch.org/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-and-the-vote-navigator-update-9/

NEW >> Three in five Americans suspect Dr. Fauci believes Trump has done a bad job on coronavirus.

Two in five say Fauci has been outspoken in his criticism of Trump’s handling of the pandemic; nearly equal shares of Democrats (45%) and Republicans (41%) feel this is the case.

NEW today >> As cases continue to rise in states across the country, a majority of Americans say the “worst is yet to come.”

Less than three in ten say the “worst is over.”

A majority of Americans know someone who has been infected and a quarter know someone who has died from #coronavirus.

Democrats, Hispanic Americans, and Black Americans are the groups most likely to know someone who has been infected or has died.

Two in three say new cases in the country are increasing, up 9 points in a week.

Americans in Midwestern states are more likely to say cases are rising locally (70%) than Americans in Western states (48%) and in Northeastern and Southern states (52%).

Americans’ top indicators that the pandemic is out of control:

• Single day records for new cases across the country
• 8 million total U.S. cases
• 222,000 fatalities, the world’s highest #coronavirus death toll

NEW >> Nearly three in five say Trump is “not doing enough” on handling the pandemic.

This is consistent with the level who said the same mid-July during the surge in new cases that took place in the U.S. this summer.

The latest on Trump’s approval ratings:

• Trump is in the negative on everything from the economy to handling the pandemic
• On the economy, Trump is at -4 among independents (43% approve/47% disapprove)
• Also among independents, Trump is -32 on the pandemic (31% to 63% )

NEW today >> Americans trust Dr. Fauci more than Trump on the pandemic by a large margin.

Even among Republicans, 43% have a favorable view of Dr. Fauci and 29% trust him more than Trump to make decisions and share information about the state of coronavirus.

New today >> Nearly three in five say the pandemic is “out of control,” with three in ten saying it is “totally out of control.”

At least three in five independents, Hispanic Americans, Black Americans, and Democrats believe that the pandemic is “out of control.”

NEW Today >> Nearly three in five say the pandemic is one of the top issues the President and Congress should be focused on.

Jobs and the economy (45%) and health care (42%) also remain top issues on which Americans feel the President and Congress should be focusing.

NEW today:

• The pandemic continues to dominate the national conversation about Trump
• A majority say the pandemic is “out of control” as cases increase across the nation
• Most Americans trust Fauci to make decisions over the president

https://navigatorresearch.org/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-and-the-vote-navigator-update-8/

Featured polls