Latest Navigator Update on Coronavirus and the Vote

Friday, October 23, 2020

A credible, trusted message-development voice for progressives in policy debates, providing the best words, images, elements, phrases and frames to ensure progressives win the argument.

A credible, trusted message-development voice for progressives in policy debates, providing the best words, images, elements, phrases and frames to ensure progressives win the argument.

Latest Navigator Update on Coronavirus and the Vote

Friday, October 23, 2020

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Progressives know that we have the right policy prescriptions, but not always the right framing and language for how to talk about the fights we are engaged in every day. We can win the argument if we know how to make it.

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Our Vision

Progressives know that we have the right policy prescriptions, but not always the right framing and language for how to talk about the fights we are engaged in every day. We can win the argument if we know how to make it.

Join Us.

Sign up to receive regular updates from Navigator.

Featured news

Why Blaming China For The Pandemic Probably Won’t Help Trump Win

Tuesday, July 29, 2020

A Navigator poll from late April, for instance, tested multiple narratives about who’s to blame for the pandemic, asking voters which of two statements they agreed with more even if they didn’t fully agree with either. When forced to choose between a statement that placed all the blame on Trump and one that put all the blame on China, respondents were essentially evenly divided, 49 to 51, which is well within the poll’s confidence interval. A statement that blamed both Trump and China got slightly more support, at 54 percent. This suggests that at least some voters are open to an argument that gives China a significant share of the blame for the pandemic.

Tweets

In the #GOAT Debate, majorities of both Biden and Trump voters say Michael Jordan is the greatest basketball player of all time.

Among men ages 18-34, 27% think LeBron is the best basketball player of all time.

Still - Congratulations to The King on #4! #GotMoreWorkToDo

Americans on Trump’s rallies: Stop. Drop. Please don’t open up shop.

More than half have a negative impression of Trump’s rallies and feel he should stop holding them.

Note Intensity:
• 44% have a “very negative” impression of his rallies
• 42% feel “strongly” he should stop

Americans describing Republicans in our latest poll:

• “Yes men”
• “No backbone”
• “Putting party over country”

(Poll conducted October 15-19, 2020)

Consistent with last year’s November Navigator poll, most Americans - including a plurality of independents - believe that Trump has committed a crime while serving as president.

Nearly two in five say he “definitely has.”

If you think Trump is “self-absorbed,” you can now consider yourself part of #The70Percent (a group which has grown by 8 points since last week).

Among independents, 73% say “self-absorbed” and 68% say “chaotic” describe how Trump is handling his job as president.

NEW today >> A majority of Americans say Trump has not done enough to discourage white supremacist violence while president.

74% of Black Americans and 70% of Hispanic Americans say he has not done enough.

NEW today >> Americans continue to associate Trump with a rise in lawless disorder.

Among independents, there has been an 8-point increase since late September in the share who say Trump has “made the situation worse.”

NEW today:

• Americans say Trump has failed to discourage white supremacist violence
• Americans feel Republicans in Congress have not shown enough independence from Trump
• Majorities favor remote schooling if cases of coronavirus continue to rise
https://navigatorresearch.org/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-and-the-vote-navigator-update-10/

More than two in five say that a Joe Biden presidency will heal some of the country’s divisions and make people more united, while less than a quarter say the same of a second Trump term.

Just one in five Trump voters and Biden voters each say “nearly all” or “a fair amount“ of the people they interact with in daily life are voting for the opposing candidate.

NEW >> Americans have quite different expectations for the election.

The vast majority of Biden voters think the former vice president will probably win.

Trump voters are more likely to say the incumbent president will "definitely" be re-elected.

With 19% of Americans reporting having already voted, 15% say they have done so by mail.

Among Americans 65 and older, 30% say they have already voted by mail, as compared to 8% of 18-44 year-olds and 13% of 45-64 year-olds.

Overall, there has been a 9-point jump since September 29 in the share who plan to vote before Election Day.

Among Americans 65 years old and above, there has been a 12-point jump.

Just a third of Americans intend to vote in person ON Election Day.

A majority intend to vote by mail or in person BEFORE Election Day, or say they have already voted.

Here’s one thing Americans can agree on as Election Day nears.

Across party lines and regardless of intended vote choice, Americans say they will be glad to see the presidential election end.

NEW today:

• More Americans are now planning to vote before Election Day
• A majority of Americans feel a second Trump term will divide the country further
• Americans with mixed feelings on Trump are concerned about him inciting post-election violence
https://navigatorresearch.org/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-and-the-vote-navigator-update-9/

NEW >> Three in five Americans suspect Dr. Fauci believes Trump has done a bad job on coronavirus.

Two in five say Fauci has been outspoken in his criticism of Trump’s handling of the pandemic; nearly equal shares of Democrats (45%) and Republicans (41%) feel this is the case.

NEW today >> As cases continue to rise in states across the country, a majority of Americans say the “worst is yet to come.”

Less than three in ten say the “worst is over.”

A majority of Americans know someone who has been infected and a quarter know someone who has died from #coronavirus.

Democrats, Hispanic Americans, and Black Americans are the groups most likely to know someone who has been infected or has died.

Two in three say new cases in the country are increasing, up 9 points in a week.

Americans in Midwestern states are more likely to say cases are rising locally (70%) than Americans in Western states (48%) and in Northeastern and Southern states (52%).

Americans’ top indicators that the pandemic is out of control:

• Single day records for new cases across the country
• 8 million total U.S. cases
• 222,000 fatalities, the world’s highest #coronavirus death toll

NEW >> Nearly three in five say Trump is “not doing enough” on handling the pandemic.

This is consistent with the level who said the same mid-July during the surge in new cases that took place in the U.S. this summer.

The latest on Trump’s approval ratings:

• Trump is in the negative on everything from the economy to handling the pandemic
• On the economy, Trump is at -4 among independents (43% approve/47% disapprove)
• Also among independents, Trump is -32 on the pandemic (31% to 63% )

NEW today >> Americans trust Dr. Fauci more than Trump on the pandemic by a large margin.

Even among Republicans, 43% have a favorable view of Dr. Fauci and 29% trust him more than Trump to make decisions and share information about the state of coronavirus.

New today >> Nearly three in five say the pandemic is “out of control,” with three in ten saying it is “totally out of control.”

At least three in five independents, Hispanic Americans, Black Americans, and Democrats believe that the pandemic is “out of control.”

NEW Today >> Nearly three in five say the pandemic is one of the top issues the President and Congress should be focused on.

Jobs and the economy (45%) and health care (42%) also remain top issues on which Americans feel the President and Congress should be focusing.

NEW today:

• The pandemic continues to dominate the national conversation about Trump
• A majority say the pandemic is “out of control” as cases increase across the nation
• Most Americans trust Fauci to make decisions over the president

https://navigatorresearch.org/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-and-the-vote-navigator-update-8/

For four months of weekly tracking in @NavigatorSurvey, the negative things that people have heard about Trump come down to two primary things at the end of the day: coronavirus and his lies.

Generally, majorities say the words “self-absorbed,” “chaotic,” “irresponsible,” and “unprepared,” describe Donald Trump’s handling of his job as president.

Among Independents, majorities say “self-absorbed” (60%) and “chaotic” (64%) apply to Trump’s handling of the presidency.

Americans give Trump worse marks on his handling of the economic recovery from the pandemic specifically than on the economy overall (a net -7 approval rating compared to a net -1 approval rating).

Nearly half of Americans say their current financial situation makes them uneasy about the next few months, and more than one in three say they will have trouble paying bills this month.

Seven in ten say we need additional relief to help people who have lost their jobs, up 11 points since early June.

The share who say we need additional economic relief is up 16 points among Independents, and is up 21 points among Republicans.

Only 19% of the public believes Trump was right to halt negotiations for the next round of coronavirus relief.

On a separate question, 68% say they have heard “a lot” or “some” about the latest status of economic relief negotiations, including 62% of Independents.

From our most recent poll:

Americans blame Trump and the Republicans more than Democrats in Congress for the lack of progress on economic relief.

When last asked in our September 21 poll, 44% blamed Democrats and 45% Trump and Republicans for lack of progress.

Important takeaways from last week’s Navigator update:

• Americans overwhelmingly support advancing a $2.4 trillion coronavirus relief package
• Trump and Republicans are getting more blame than Democrats for no deal on economic relief

https://navigatorresearch.org/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-and-the-vote-navigator-update-6/

Three in four Americans are confident their ballot will be counted correctly and fairly, and there has been a 4-point increase since last week in the share who are confident the results at large will be counted correctly and fairly.

Two in three continue to say it will take longer than a day to know who won the presidential election with just one in four saying we will know on election night or the day after.

With more than one in ten reporting they have already voted, of those who do not yet report having voted, about a third plan to vote by mail or in person on Election Day each.

Among Democrats, nearly one in five (17%) report having already voted.

Americans report seeing a mix of positive and negative ads about Trump – while more than two in five say they are seeing mostly positive Biden ads.

Pluralities of independents say they aren’t seeing any ads on Trump (45%) or Biden (39%).

For Trump, recent exposure among Americans has been mostly negative (58%) or a mix of positive and negative (25%), but for Biden, recent exposure among Americans has been mostly positive (44%) or a mix (30%).

A growing share of Americans say Biden will win the election, up a net +6 since last week.

While Democrats have grown a net 4 points more confident that Biden will win in the last week, among Republicans, confidence in a Trump victory has declined a net 8 points.

Overall, Biden has a net +12 favorability rating (54% favorable/42% unfavorable) and is net +6 among independents, 48% favorable-42% unfavorable.

Trump is underwater by 13 points (43% favorable/56% unfavorable) and among independents he’s net -22 (35% favorable/57% unfavorable).

NEW today:

-Joe Biden remains well-liked as a plurality report hearing mostly positive things about him.
-Americans yet to vote are split between mail-in and voting in person on Election Day.
-Americans are concerned about Trump not accepting the results.
https://navigatorresearch.org/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-and-the-vote-navigator-update-7/

Four in five support Congress passing a new round of economic relief right now, and Americans blame Trump and the Republicans more than Democrats for the lack of progress.

When last asked September 21, 44% blamed Democrats and 45% Trump and Republicans for lack of progress.

Nearly half say the economy is “getting worse,” while just one in four say the economy is “getting better.”

Among independents, a majority (52%) say the economy is “getting worse.”

From today's release >> Americans across parties are most worried about these three things:

• The lack of relief for those who are currently struggling from the economic impact of the pandemic
• Others ignoring social distancing
• The country facing a recession

NEW Today >> A majority of Americans continue to believe the Supreme Court should not overturn the ACA.

Among independents, 46% support keeping the ACA in place while only one in six (16%) support overturning it.

Since last week, a near-majority continues to prefer having a Biden #SCOTUS nominee over Barrett.

Among independents, preference for to make the pick over Barrett has grown 15 points since last week (from 24% to 39%).

Over the last two weeks, Amy Coney Barrett’s net favorability ratings have decreased by 7 points.

Among Democrats and independents, her net favorability ratings have decreased by 15 and 16 points respectively.

NEW today:

• With #SCOTUS hearings underway, the public remains opposed to a potential ACA repeal
• Americans overwhelmingly support a $2.4 trillion coronavirus relief package
• Trump and Republicans are getting more blame than Democrats for no deal
https://navigatorresearch.org/public-opinion-on-coronavirus-and-the-vote-navigator-update-6/

Two in three support the attempt by the Commission on Presidential Debates to host a virtual debate instead of an in-person debate following Trump’s positive coronavirus diagnosis, while a majority oppose his decision to withdraw as a result.

Just a third see Trump as showing strength by not taking precautions like wearing a mask or strictly social distancing.

Three in five see Joe Biden as a good leader for observing these precautions “like everyone should.”

The majority of Americans say that Trump is “not doing enough” on handling the pandemic, approaching the level who said the same mid-July during the surge in new cases that took place in the U.S. this summer.

From Today's Release >> Trump’s approval ratings remain underwater on everything from the economy to handling the pandemic.

Among independents, Trump is just breaking even on the economy (46% approve/46% disapprove).

NEW >>>> More than three in four support having a law requiring people wear masks in their state.

Such a law enjoys majority support from Democrats (92%), independents (70%), and Republicans (62%), with a 5-point increase in Republican support since August 3 (from 57% to 62%).

Three in five are more concerned social distancing will end too soon vs. go on too long.

Even among Republicans, 40% say they are more concerned social distancing will end too soon (51% say they are more concerned social distancing will go on too long).

NEW Today >>

Nearly half say the country needs “more aggressive social distancing measures.”

Just one in three say we are currently “doing the right thing,” and less than one in five say we should “relax social distancing measures.”

In the last week, the share who say the number of new cases is increasing in their state has grown 6 points.

The share who say the number of new cases in their state is declining has dropped 5 points.

More than half of Americans say the “worst is yet to come,” while just one in three say the “worst is over.”

Among independents, 61% say the “worst is yet to come” in the pandemic and 22% say the “worst is over.”

A majority of Americans continue to choose the pandemic as a top issue for the President and Congress to focus on.

• Jobs and the economy and health care also remain top issues for Americans.
• One in six (15%) also continue to rate Supreme Court appointments as a top issue.

Featured polls