Democrats Significantly More Motivated to Vote Than Republicans Based on Supreme Court Ruling on Roe
Washington, D.C. — Today, Navigator Research released new polling showing increased support for abortion access and growing fear that abortion is at risk in the aftermath of the leaked draft Supreme Court decision. Four in five Americans feel the decision to get an abortion should be left to a woman and her doctor, rather than politicians and the government. More than seven in ten Americans (71 percent) now believe the national right to an abortion is at risk, up 8 points since last month.
Since Navigator’s April survey on abortion, released two weeks prior to the draft decision, there have been significant increases in the share of people who describe themselves as pro-choice (from net +22 to net +30), those who believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases (from net +14 to net +22), and who give a favorable rating to Roe v. Wade (from net +25 to net +30). Awareness on abortion issues also increased significantly since the draft, with nearly three in four Americans (73 percent) reporting hearing “a lot” or “some” about the Supreme Court’s draft decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Navigator’s data also shows abortion could have significant implications for the midterm elections. In a generic ballot test between “a Democrat who supports the right to an abortion” versus “a Republican who wants to ban abortions nationwide,” the Democrat supporting abortion rights soundly defeats a Republican backing an abortion ban by a 19-point margin (53 percent Democratic – 34 percent Republican), including by a 29-point margin among women. Moreover, more than seven in ten Democrats consider themselves more motivated to vote by the Supreme Court potentially overturning Roe (71 percent), compared to just 44 percent of Republicans who say the same.
Additionally, a majority of Americans now do not trust the Supreme Court (51 percent), an 11-point decline from the beginning of this month prior to the draft decision, when 60 percent said they did trust the Court. A plurality of Americans believe that the Supreme Court is heading down a path that is too conservative (44 percent).
“Since the Supreme Court’s draft decision came to light, support for the right to an abortion has only increased further,” said Margie Omero, Advisor to Navigator Research and Principal at GBAO. “Overturning Roe or passing a national abortion ban are both completely out of step with the public, and would put both opinions of the Court and Republican candidates at risk.”
Additionally, a majority now do not trust the Supreme Court (51 percent), an 11-point decline from the beginning of this month prior to the draft decision, when 60 percent said they did trust the Court. A plurality of Americans believe that the Supreme Court is heading down a path that is too conservative (44 percent).
By a two-to-one margin, voters support Congress passing laws that would protect abortion rights; an even larger margin oppose Republican proposals for a nationwide abortion ban. By a near 30-point margin, Americans express support for Congress passing a law that would guarantee the right to an abortion (58 percent – 29 percent oppose). Conversely, passing a national abortion ban in Congress is deeply unpopular (27 percent support – 65 percent oppose); only 12 percent of Independents support a nationwide ban.
A plurality of Americans would view Republicans in Congress less favorably for supporting a Court decision to overturn Roe (45 percent would be less favorable), including significant pluralities of both Independents (40 percent) and pro-life Republicans (41 percent).
About Navigator Research
The Navigator Research project is designed to act as a consistent, flexible, responsive tool to inform policy debates. By conducting research and providing reliable guidance to inform allies, elected leaders, and the press, Navigator helps top leaders in Washington and grassroots leaders around the country shape the debate on the issues that matter most. Follow us on Twitter for the latest updates.
About The Study
Global Strategy Group conducted a public opinion survey among a sample of 999 registered voters from May 5-May 9, 2022. 101 additional interviews were conducted among Hispanic voters. 101 additional interviews were conducted among Asian American and Pacific Islander voters. 100 additional interviews were conducted among African American voters. 100 additional interviews were conducted among independent voters. The survey was conducted online, recruiting respondents from an opt-in online panel vendor. The margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level is +/- 3.1 percent.