• Polling

Battleground Constituents on the Republican Tax Plan

Wednesday, July 26, 2023 By Ian Smith
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Battleground: The Republican Tax Plan

This Navigator Research report contains polling data on battleground constituents’ attitudes toward the Republican tax plan to make the Trump tax cuts permanent, specific concerns constituents have about different aspects of the proposal, and how these concerns drive increased opposition toward making them permanent.

Three in four battleground constituents favor both raising taxes on billionaires and big corporations and closing tax loopholes they take advantage of.


By 49 points, battleground constituents are in favor of raising taxes on billionaires and big corporations (73 percent – 24 percent). Support comes from 96 percent of Democrats, 78 percent of independents, and nearly half of Republicans (48 percent). Net favorability grows to a net +61 when asking about closing tax loopholes on billionaires and big corporations (77 percent – 16 percent), driven by a significantly higher share of Republicans who are supportive of closing tax loopholes (65 percent). Closing tax loopholes is also a more popular framing among Hispanic voters (net +84 for closing tax loopholes; net +40 for raising taxes) and men (net +56 for closing tax loopholes; net +36 for raising taxes).

Survey results to the following split sample questions on the Republican tax plan: Do you favor or oppose raising taxes on billionaires and big corporations? Do you favor or oppose closing tax loopholes for billionaires and big corporations?

The best messages against making the Trump tax cuts permanent include concerns about effects on Social Security and Medicare, and those about the plan favoring the wealthy.

 

The strongest criticism of the tax plan is its proposed increase of the federal deficit by $1 trillion, which could lead to Social Security and Medicare cuts. This claim concerns 68 percent of battleground constituents a great deal, including a majority of Republicans (56 percent) and two in three independents (66 percent).

  • Another effective message is about the 55 largest corporations that paid zero federal income tax in 2020: 68 percent of battleground constituents are concerned a great deal by this, and this argument resonates the most with battleground independents (66 percent express a great deal of concern).
  • However, arguments against the tax law purely focusing on financial aspects, devoid of impact, prove less influential. The least impactful argument against the tax law is the claim that it would increase the federal deficit by $1 trillion: while a majority are concerned a great deal (52 percent), this falls 16 points behind the top-performing statements that call out the consequences for Social Security and Medicare and companies paying zero in federal taxes. An argument pointing out that the lowest-earning Americans only receive a tax break of $40 compared to the wealthiest receiving $16,500 also falls behind the more consequence-oriented arguments.
Survey results to the following prompt on the Republican tax plan: Here are some statements that critics of the tax law that Congress is considering making permanent might make. For each, please indicate if that concerns you a great deal, somewhat, a little, or does not concern you at all.

There is significant movement against making the Trump tax cuts permanent after battleground constituents see messages about the plan.

 

Before hearing any arguments against making the Trump tax cuts permanent, a plurality of battleground constituents favor making it permanent (net +9; 49 percent favor – 40 percent oppose). After exposure to a variety of arguments against making the Trump tax cuts permanent, there is a significant net 24-point drop in support from an initial net +9 to a net -15 (37 percent support – 52 percent oppose). The most dramatic drops came from battleground independents (by a net 25 points, from net +9 to net -16) and Republicans (by a net 33 points, from net +80 to net +47).

  • Those whose opinion moves against making the Trump tax cuts permanent after messaging are less likely to have a four-year college degree (67 percent, compared to 60 percent overall), are more likely to live in a household making less than $100,000 a year (64 percent, compared to 54 percent overall), are more Republican or Republican-leaning (56 percent, compared to 44 percent overall), and are more female (60 percent, compared to 54 percent overall).
Survey results to the following prompt on the Republican tax plan: As you may know, in 2017 President Trump and Congressional Republicans passed a law that cut taxes on individuals and corporations. These tax cuts are set to expire in 2025 unless Congress votes to make them permanent. From what you know, do you favor or oppose Congress making this tax law permanent?
Survey results to the following prompt on the Republican tax plan: Once again, do you favor or oppose Congress making the 2017 tax law permanent?

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About The Study

Impact Research conducted public opinion surveys among a sample of 1,500 likely 2024 general election voters from July 6-July 12, 2023. The survey was conducted by a mix of text-to-web (74 percent) and an opt-in, online panel (26 percent). Respondents were verified against a voter file and special care was taken to ensure the demographic composition of our sample matched that of the 61 congressional districts included in the sample across a variety of demographic variables. The margin of error for the full sample at the 95 percent level of
confidence is +/- 2.5 percentage points. The margin for error for subgroups varies and is higher.

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About Navigator

In a world where the news cycle is the length of a tweet, our leaders often lack the real-time public-sentiment analysis to shape the best approaches to talking about the issues that matter the most. Navigator is designed to act as a consistent, flexible, responsive tool to inform policy debates by conducting research and reliable guidance to inform allies, elected leaders, and the press. Navigator is a project led by pollsters from Global Strategy Group and GBAO along with an advisory committee, including: Andrea Purse, progressive strategist; Arkadi Gerney, The Hub Project; Joel Payne, The Hub Project; Christina Reynolds, EMILY’s List; Delvone Michael, Working Families; Felicia Wong, Roosevelt Institute; Mike Podhorzer, AFL-CIO; Jesse Ferguson, progressive strategist; Navin Nayak, Center for American Progress Action Fund; Stephanie Valencia, EquisLabs; and Melanie Newman, Planned Parenthood Action Fund.

For press inquiries contact: press@navigatorresearch.org