Poll: Election Confidence

This Navigator Research report contains polling data on the latest perceptions of the upcoming election, including how confident Americans are that their ballot will be counted fairly, when people expect to know the results of the election, and the most convincing statements on trusting the electoral process.

An overwhelming majority of Americans are confident their ballot will be counted fairly in the 2024 election.

80 percent of Americans are confident their ballot in the 2024 election will be counted correctly and fairly, including 91 percent of Democrats, 71 percent of Republicans, and 67 percent of independents. This is consistent with Navigator’s final pre-election tracking poll in October 2020, when 84 percent of Democrats, 72 percent of Republicans, and 72 percent of independents were confident in their ballot being counted fairly.

• Two in three Americans expect to know the results of the presidential election after Election Day: only one in three say we will know who won the election on election night (34 percent), while 66 percent believe it will take longer than that. One in three Americans believe we will know who won the presidential election a day or two after Election Day, 18 percent believe we will know within a week of Election Day, and 14 percent believe it will take longer than a week to know.
  
• When it comes to reporting truthful results of the election, Americans are most likely to trust friends and family (80 percent), local officials and election workers (67 percent each), and local news (61 percent). The least trusted sources include MAGA Republicans (net -23; 31 percent trust – 54 percent do not trust), Elon Musk (net -20; 32 percent trust – 52 percent do not trust), and Speaker Mike Johnson (net -9; 32 percent trust – 41 percent do not trust).

Over nine in ten Americans agree it is more important every vote is counted accurately than that we know the results quickly.

When it comes to voting and elections in America, 94 percent agree it is more important that we count every vote accurately than that we know the results quickly, including 72 percent who “strongly” agree. Over nine in ten also agree with the statement “the only way government works is if people get to elect their leaders” (93 percent) and with the statement that “more citizens voting is good for democracy” (92 percent). 

• Only 40 percent agree is it necessary to have armed citizens as poll watchers to ensure we have a fair election (net -20; 40 percent agree – 60 percent disagree), and only 34 percent agree it is important to use any means necessary to protect election integrity, even through violence (net -32; 34 percent agree – 66 percent disagree).
  
• Three in four Americans would rather the results of the election be entirely accurate – no matter who the winner is (74 percent), compared to 26 percent who would rather their preferred candidate win, even if the results are not accurate. This includes 79 percent of 2020 Biden voters and 70 percent of 2020 Trump voters who prefer the results of the election be entirely accurate, no matter who the winner is.
  
• By 14 points, a majority of Americans believe Kamala Harris wants an honest and accurate count of the votes in the election (53 percent wants honest count – 39 percent just wants to win), while a majority believe Donald Trump just wants to win the election over having an honest count by 19 points (37 percent wants honest count – 56 percent just wants to win).

The most convincing reasons to trust the election process focus on ensuring that every vote is counted so voters are able to pick their leaders.

In response to claims that “those Democrats have a history of cheating in elections, and they’re trying to do it again this time by letting illegal immigrants vote, rigging voting machines, and counting illegal votes,” more Americans agree with those who say: 

• Republicans might try to stop it, but we need every vote counted. That’s the most important thing: voters get to pick their leaders and hold them accountable through elections… ensuring that every legal vote gets counted is a crucial part of that accountability (63 percent of Americans agree, including 87 percent of Democrats, 56 percent of independents, and 40 percent of Republicans); and,  
• Republicans might try to stop it, but Americans have fought and died to protect our democracy, our Constitution, and the freedoms that we all cherish — including the freedom to vote… we need to protect the sacred right to vote by protecting our elections and making sure every vote is counted  (62 percent of Americans agree, including 84 percent of Democrats, 58 percent of independents, and 40 percent of Republicans).

The best reasons to accept the results and oppose efforts to challenge the 2024 election focus on values.

The most convincing reasons to trust the electoral process focus on Americans’ belief that election losers should not challenge the results every time just because they don’t like the outcome. 40 percent of Americans believe “we cannot have the losers challenge the results of the election every time just because they don’t like the outcome” is a convincing reason to trust the electoral process. 39 percent also cite “it not being unusual for it to take a few days for election results to be counted accurately and fairly” as a convincing reason, and 38 percent say “we cannot let extremists to jeopardize our elections with doubts every time they don’t like the outcome of an election” as a convincing reason to trust the electoral process.