Americans in the Battleground Continue to View the Republican Tax Law and Tariffs Unfavorably

Majorities of battleground constituents don’t like two major Republican policies: the tax law (also known as the One Big Beautiful Bill) and tariffs. The Republican tax law is underwater by 11 points (43% favorable – 54% unfavorable, including 47% who find it very unfavorable) unchanged from February. Tariffs are underwater by 14 points (41% favorable – 55% unfavorable) with 46% very unfavorable. Even in districts President Trump won by at least 10.5% in 2024, the Republican tax law is underwater by eight points (44% favorable – 52% unfavorable) and tariffs have a net favorability of -12 points (42% favorable – 54% unfavorable).

Battleground Constituents Want Tariff Refunds to Go to Consumers, Not Businesses

44% of Americans in the battleground say they have heard at least some about the Trump administration giving tariff refunds to businesses after the Supreme Court overturned many of them in February.

When asked who should receive refunds for tariffs since they’ve been overturned, more than three-in-five say they should go to consumers who are plagued by inflation (62%). This includes majorities of Republicans and independents (51% and 63%, respectively). Only 32% say the refunds should go to businesses.

Americans in the Battleground Are Concerned by Cuts to Medicaid, SNAP, and Clean Energy in the Republican Tax Law

Americans in the battleground concerned by cuts in the Republican tax law to things like clean energy, food assistance, and healthcare:

• 70% are concerned that Republicans in Congress voted to raise the cost of food, including 56% with “very serious concerns;”
• 67% are concerned that Republicans in Congress voted to raise energy costs (which can be attributed to cutting clean energy programs in the Republican tax law), including 52% who have “very serious concerns”; and
• 61% are concerned that Republicans in Congress voted to cut Medicaid, including 51% who have “very serious concerns.”

Arguments about food are far more powerful when framed as “raising food costs” (70% concerns) instead of “voted to cut SNAP, which raised the cost of food and took away food assistance from millions of Americans” (54%). This is mostly driven by Republicans for whom concern went from 44% to just 14%. Among independents, concern went from 77% to just 40%.

Highlighting Cuts to Medicaid and SNAP Weakens The Popularity of Republicans’ “No Tax on Tips”

Nearly seven-in-10 battleground constituents are at least somewhat familiar with provisions in the Republican tax law that eliminate some taxes on tips and overtime (69%) and Americans in the battleground support those provisions by more than a 50-point margin (74% favor – 18% oppose).

That margin narrows significantly when given more information on the Republican tax law. After seeing that message, support goes from a 56-point margin to just 12 points (50% favor – 38% oppose). When constituents are given both the messaging above and a rebuttal from Republicans in Congress, support still goes down to just a 15-point margin (52% favor – 37% oppose).

Americans in the Battleground Didn’t Report Seeing Much Tax Benefits This Filing Season, But Continue to Trust Republicans More than Democrats on Taxes

The majority aren’t feeling relief from the Republican tax law. After this most recent filing, 27% say they paid more in federal income taxes than they expected and 39% say they paid the same. Just 16% say they paid less in federal taxes than they expected.

While battleground constituents trust Democrats over Republicans by a 21-point margin when it comes to making the wealthy pay their fair share in taxes (43% Democrats – 22% Republicans), Republicans have a four-point trust advantage over Democrats on taxes broadly (41% Republicans – 36% Democrats).