Exit Poll: Top Issues

This Navigator Research report is the first in a series of releases from our House battleground survey among 2024 voters in closely-divided battleground districts. This release focuses on the key issues that drove vote choice for Congress in these battleground districts, how these issues ranked in saliency, and who voters trust most to handle top issues.

Inflation and immigration were the driving issues for battleground voters.

Inflation, immigration, and threats to democracy were most important issues in choosing who to vote for in closely-divided House districts. Similarly to the national electorate, battleground voters said that inflation and the cost of living (30 percent) was the top priority when deciding who to vote for in the U.S. Congress, followed by immigration and the border (28 percent) and threats to democracy (27 percent). Immigration and inflation and the cost of living were the top priorities for those voting for Republican congressional candidates (53 percent and 49 percent, respectively) while those who voted for the Democratic congressional candidate prioritized threats to democracy (48 percent) and abortion (32 percent).

• Among a list of issues, inflation and the cost of living was selected as the issue that mattered when deciding which candidate to support for Congress (87 percent, including 67 percent who said it mattered “a great deal”), followed by taxes (85 percent, including 56 percent who said it mattered “a great deal”), Social Security and Medicare (82 percent, including 53 percent who said it mattered “a great deal”), guns (76 percent, including 54 percent who said it mattered “a great deal”), and immigration (75 percent, including 56 percent who said it mattered “a great deal”). 
• The most important traits seen as mattering most when deciding which candidate to support for Congress included the candidate’s personal character and values (86 percent, including 64 percent who said it mattered “a great deal”), the candidate’s political party (75 percent, including 49 percent who said it mattered “a great deal”), and whether the candidate was committed to accepting the results of the 2024 election (64 percent, including 52 percent who said it mattered “a great deal”).

Voters were more concerned about Republicans’ stance on abortion than Democrats’ stance on immigration and transgender rights.

By a 15-point margin, voters were more concerned about Republicans’ position on abortion (47 percent concerned) over Democrats’ position on transgender people (32 percent concerned), including independents by 10 points (45 percent Republicans’ stance concerning – 35 percent Democrats’ stance concerning). Voters were also more concerned by 10 points about Republicans’ position on abortion (48 percent) over Democrats’ position on immigration and the border (35 percent); however, Democrats’ stance on immigration is more concerning to independents (net -7; 40 percent Republicans’ stance concerning – 47 percent Democrats’ stance concerning). 

• A majority of voters who didn’t vote for Republican congressional candidates were most concerned that the Republican would be a rubber stamp for Donald Trump (55 percent), followed by their stance on abortion (21 percent), and being too extreme (14 percent). Voters who didn’t vote for the Democratic congressional candidate were similarly most concerned about the Democrat being a rubber stamp for Kamala Harris (48 percent), over being too extreme (19 percent) or their stance on issues, like immigration (11 percent).

Voters heard most about Democrats’ stance on abortion and Republicans’ stances on immigration and crime.

Voters heard the most by far about Democratic congressional candidates’ stance on abortion (70 percent heard “a lot” or “some”), distantly followed by their position on making the wealthy pay their fair share in taxes (53 percent heard “a lot” or “some”) and economic security for the middle class (44 percent heard “a lot” or “some”). On Republican congressional candidates’ stances, voters heard most about immigration and the border (67 percent heard “a lot” or “some”), crime (57 percent heard “a lot” or “some”), abortion (56 percent heard “a lot” or “some”), and the cost of living (50 percent heard “a lot” or “some”).

• Battleground voters decisively believed Democratic candidates would support policies that will protect abortion rights over Republicans by 60 points (72 percent Democratic candidates – 12 percent Republican candidates). Voters also believed Republicans were more likely to support policies that will lower taxes for the wealthy (net -38; 17 percent Democratic candidates – 55 percent Republican candidates). 
• Voters were more split on whether Democrats or Republicans candidates “care about people like me” (net +4; 45 percent Democratic candidates – 41 percent Republican candidates), is a strong leader (net -1; 39 percent Democratic candidates – 40 percent Republican candidates), or is too extreme (net -3; 41 percent Democratic candidates – 44 percent Republican candidates).