Poll: Texas Redistricting

TOPLINES | GRAPHS

This Navigator Research report covers reactions to Texas lawmakers attempts to redraw the state’s congressional maps.

Most Americans say they have seen something and are concerned about Texas Republicans trying to change their congressional district lines—but partisanship is driving intensity.

Six in ten (61 percent) say they have seen, read, or heard something about Texas Republican lawmakers trying to change congressional district lines in order to get more Republicans elected, including 69 percent of Democrats and 58 percent of Republicans. Just 40 percent of independents have heard something about it.

• Liberal Democrats (76 percent), active news consumers (74 percent), and those who say politics is very important to their personal identity (76 percent) are hearing the most about this.

A 54 percent majority say they are concerned about the changing of congressional district lines, including 39 percent who are very concerned. Democrats are most concerned (85 percent, including 70 percent very concerned), compared to independents (52 percent, including 39 percent very concerned).

Views of the Gerrymander

By a 21-point margin, half of Americans (50 percent) oppose Texas lawmakers redrawing the state’s congressional maps. Again, Democrats drive the intensity (80 percent oppose, 70 percent strongly oppose), though a plurality of independents and one in five Republicans also oppose the redistricting.

Opposition grows to a 54 percent majority after learning that:

As you may know, states like Texas generally redraw their congressional map after the Census (which happens every 10 years, with the next Census happening in 2030). This rare, mid-decade effort of Texas lawmakers to redraw the state’s congressional map is meant to benefit Trump and Republicans in Congress by allowing them to pick up more seats and pad their slim majority in the House.

Opposition grows among Democrats (from 80 percent to 85 percent) and independents (from 44 percent to 52 percent). One in five Republicans (22 percent) remain opposed to the redistricting, however those who were previously unsure move to supporting the redistricting (from 53 percent to 60 percent).

A power grab

Americans are split on what concerns them most about Texas Republican lawmakers’ efforts to redraw the state’s congressional map:

• Power grab: This is a power grab by Trump to hold onto his slim majority in the House: Republicans are rigging the system to hold onto power (33 percent find this concerning, including 53 percent of Democrats and 29 percent of independents);
• Polarized: Our political system is already broken: if Texas goes through with this redrawing of the state’s congressional map, other states will follow suit and further polarize and harm our democracy (26 percent find this concerning, including 29 percent of independents, 25 percent of Republicans and 31 percent of non-MAGA Republicans).

An argument about racial gerrymandering was less compelling overall, but it was the strongest argument among African American respondents.

Independents are equally split on “power grab,” “polarized,” and finding none of these concerning.

Recommendations:

1. Lead with information about what this is, there is an awareness and education gap to be addressed:

As you may know, states like Texas generally redraw their congressional map after the Census (which happens every 10 years, with the next Census happening in 2030). But, this timing is an unprecedented step—doing it when it suits them and to gain more power, instead of more properly representing people.

2. Explain WHY legislators are attempting to do this:

They are manipulating the maps to benefit Trump and Republicans in Congress by allowing them to pick up more seats and pad their slim majority in the House.

3. Acknowledge the rigged system that allows this:

Our political system is already broken:

• • For base audience: This is a power grab by Trump to hold onto his slim majority in the House: Republicans are rigging the system to hold onto power.
  • For a broader audience: Texas goes through with this redrawing of the state’s congressional map, other states will follow suit and further polarize and harm our democracy.