Focus Groups: 2024 Election

This Navigator Research report contains findings from focus groups among young Democrats in Michigan, white independents** in Pennsylvania, and independent men of color in Georgia on the upcoming election, including reactions to the current state of politics, fears for the outcome of the election, confidence in ballot counting and the electoral process, and the role of elected officials in certifying the election.

Feelings of division and disrespect cloud the current state of politics.

Participants see division, disrespect, and anger as major issues in the country today. Participants expressed that the country feels polarized and divided, creating pessimism about the future. One Pennsylvania man stated: “I mean, we’re really good at division. Not that I think division’s a good thing at all… I feel like division among people on almost all sides is probably the strongest thing going amongst people at the moment.” 

• While expressing concern for the future of the country, a Pennsylvania woman said: “Well, from the division, I’m afraid that we’re going to have another civil war the way everything’s going, the fighting, the anger. I mean, everybody is angry no matter what side they’re on.” Another Pennsylvania woman noted: “My biggest fear is that… even if things start to improve and the policies are implemented to financially stabilize us and improve the economy and workforce, that the hatred will still be there and whatever side will be angry the other side won.”

While most are confident that their ballots will be counted correctly, others raise concerns about various scenarios.

Many participants expressed confidence in the electoral system, particularly in local officials, and trust that their ballot would be correctly counted. A Michigan man stated: “I don’t have many questions about the legitimacy of the election, because this was litigated over and over in courts in 2020, and recounts all over the place. And it pretty much all checked out.” Another Michigan man said: “My mom has done elections for my local area for the last three elections, so I kind of know how the process works at the local level. To say that a certain amount of people would be committing fraud without any evidence to get away with it is kind of hard for me to believe.” 

• Other participants felt skeptical about the security of the voting process, with the process of counting mail-in ballots raising concerns among some, like one Pennsylvania woman who said: “You got to count the mail-in votes, you got to count the early votes, you got to count… I think it’d just be vote on Election Day and that’s it.” Others also mentioned fears of voter fraud, with one Georgia man stating: “Still two big areas that I have concerns. One is illegal voting because all I have to do is to lie. I go into the Secretary of State voter registration, I say I’m a U.S. citizen.”
• Some participants separately lamented the Electoral College. One Pennsylvania man stated: “I would feel like if my candidate lost through popular vote versus Electoral College, I’d feel like the system had let me down more so than anything else. And vice versa. If my candidate went through electoral votes versus popular, I’d feel like the system doesn’t work…”

Many express fears around the election, regardless of who wins, as some expect unrest and violence.

Some participants expressed fear of retribution if Donald Trump wins the election, including one Pennsylvania woman who said: “He’s [Trump’s] going to go after the people that put him down, especially with the election from Biden winning, that he might go after Biden. He might go after Kamala. Who’s to know? He might go after the immigrants that are here now. I mean, we don’t know what he’s going to do. He’s a loose gun.” Others worried about civil unrest, with a Pennsylvania man saying: “If he [Trump] doesn’t get elected, I’d be more fearful for the public outcry. It seems like the Republicans are more willing to do crazier stuff.”  

• Other participants expressed fears that the country would not improve if Kamala Harris wins. A Pennsylvania man said: “I think the biggest fear I have if Harris is elected, is, I already stated it before, is nothing really changes. Because from what I was understanding, and I could be misled on this, was [that] she fully supported the Biden administration. And I feel like, and again, I could be misinformed, but I feel like things have been very hard since [then].”

Political violence is seen as a real possibility, with many referencing the January 6th insurrection at the Capitol.

One Pennsylvania woman expressed: “I think if Trump loses, there’s going to be another January 6th again. And I just think that it’s going to be scary.” Similarly, a Georgia man stated: “Considering that it was violent last time? I’m not going to put it past them because it happened once. What’s stopping them from making it happen twice?”  A Michigan man said: “I think specifically Trump does a lot of things that people don’t like to hear. About violence and things. And then his supporters will say, well, he meant to mean it in a different way. But people do actually take him seriously. And when you insinuate violence people will do violent things if they have a devotion.”

• Participants agree that violence is never appropriate following an election. A Michigan woman said: “I never think violence is a way to solve any problems. We’re all adults, so I don’t feel like that it’s ever, unless you’re protecting yourself from being harmed, violence is never the answer and it’s never going to solve anything.” A Pennsylvania woman similarly said that violence over the outcome of the election is “never the answer.”

Elected officials are seen as responsible for certifying the election, and refusing to do so is viewed as unconstitutional or “toddler-like.”

When asked how participants would view an elected official who refuses to certify the election, a Pennsylvania man said: “I think an elected official, their job is to, whatever the vote ends up being, however the votes are counted and such, their job is to be like, okay, that’s how it happens. That’s how it needs to go. I certify my vote. And I think that standing in the way of that is just not constitutional… that infringes on the rights of the voter.” A Michigan woman also said: “It reminds me of my toddler who is just like, if it’s not my way then it’s not okay and I’m going to throw a tantrum about it. If it’s not the results that I want, then I’m going to refuse to agree with them.” Likening the election to sports competitions, a Georgia man noted: “It’s okay. Just like support, your team do[es]n’t win every single time. And that’s why you have to respect the process. Yesterday was the first game of the NBA, my team lost. That’s okay. But they’ll win the next time. That’s the decency about the whole process now.” 

• Still, participants expect a long and contested election process. One Michigan man remarked: “I would assume that there’s going to be some sort of recount. There’s going to be some sort of like, oh, it was the early mail-in ballots, it was this, it was that. I just feel like we’re so divided that irrespective of what’s going to happen, these swing states are going to be under fire.”
• A Michigan woman said: “My concern is that there’s people in Congress already saying that they’re going to refuse to certify the results. How can you say that before the results are even here? I feel like they’re already laying their cards on the table. Right? And it’s mostly coming from the Republican side from what I can see.”