Poll: Battleground States & the 2024 Election

This Navigator Research report contains polling data on how voters in battleground states are assessing the 2024 election, including how motivated they are to vote for President and other offices, how they view and describe Vice President Harris and former President Trump, who they trust more to handle issues facing the country, and what messages are most effective at moving voters this election.

Democratic motivation has surged, with Democrats coalescing behind Vice President Harris.

The motivation gap between Democrats and Republicans has closed and Democrats are more united behind Harris than Republicans are behind Trump. Since Vice President Harris became the Democratic nominee, the motivation gap among those who rate their motivation to vote in November a 9 or a 10 has closed, with Democrats now 3 points higher than Republicans on the scale (75 percent to 72 percent, respectively). The motivation shift comes as 94 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Harris for President in November, compared to 89 percent of Republicans who say they will vote for Trump. High levels of Democratic unity behind Harris extend to both Democratic women and men (94 percent each), Democrats over and under the age of 50 (94 percent each), and Democrats with or without a college degree (95 percent and 93 percent, respectively).

The presidential race is tied across these battlegrounds and a significant gender gap exists across demographic groups.

The race is tied (45 percent Harris – 45 percent Trump), with 7 percent voting for a third party candidate and 3 percent undecided across five key states (Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). Women support Harris by 10 points (50 percent Harris – 40 percent Trump), while men support Trump by 12 points (39 percent Harris – 51 percent Trump). This trend exists across racial demographics including white women (net even) and men (net -20), Black women (net +74) and men (net +43), and Hispanic women (net +16) and men (net +6). Hispanic men are the only group who identify as Democrats by a higher margin (net +13; 35 percent Democrat – 21 percent Republican) than support Harris (net +6; 49 percent Harris – 43 percent Trump).

• Harris trails Trump among independents by 5 points (38 percent Harris – 43 percent Trump – 13 percent third party), but the deficit is larger among independent men (net -19; 31 percent Harris – 50 percent Trump – 14 percent third party), compared to independent women (39 percent Harris – 39 percent Trump – 12 percent third party). 
• Down ballot Democratic Senate and Governor candidates outperform Harris (47 percent Democratic candidate – 43 percent Republican candidate), with Democrats overperforming Harris among independents and weak Republicans.
• Harris is viewed more favorably (net -8; 45 percent favorable – 53 percent unfavorable) than President Biden (net -16; 41 percent favorable – 57 percent unfavorable), though Harris is viewed more favorably nationally by 2 points, whereas Biden remains 16 points underwater. Among independents, Biden is underwater by 34 points, while Harris is underwater by 20 points. Independent women are significantly more sour on Biden (net -26), compared to Harris (net -6).

Defining Harris as “up to the job” and with “a vision” is essential, as these attributes are top drivers of vote choice.

Among a list of attributes, respondents thought “honest and truthful” best described her (net +6; 41 percent Harris – 35 percent Trump), while Trump was most described as “extreme” (net -14; 35 percent Harris – 49 percent Trump) and selfish (net -14; 34 percent Harris – 48 percent Trump). In a multivariate regression, the top predictor of Harris vote choice were attributes where Trump has a narrow advantage, including “up for the job of president” (net -3; 44 percent Harris – 47 percent Trump), “has the right vision for America’s future” (net -4; 42 percent Harris – 46 percent Trump), and “a strong leader” (net -9; 40 percent Harris – 49 percent Trump). 

• The top issues Americans trust Harris to handle include abortion (net +17; 49 percent Harris – 32 percent Trump), health care (net +8; 47 percent Harris – 39 percent Trump), and income inequality (net +8; 44 percent Harris – 36 percent Trump). Independents also trust Harris more on abortion (net +16), health care (net +4), and income inequality (net +5). Trump holds voters’ trust more when it comes to immigration (net -11; 39 percent Harris – 51 percent Trump) and inflation (net -12; 38 percent Harris – 49 percent Trump).

Messages on abortion, the economy, and democracy help counter Republican attacks.

In countering a Republican attack on Harris, comparative statements on the issues of abortion, the economy, and democracy blunts Harris from losing voters. In an initial two-way vote, Harris is narrowly underwater by 2 points (46 percent Harris – 48 percent Trump), following a negative Harris statement that “as Vice President, Harris is responsible for Biden’s failed record. She was Biden’s Border Czar, leading to a border invasion, a surge in crime, and fentanyl on our streets. And, with Harris’ help, Bidenomics has caused runaway inflation and the American Dream is dead. It’s no surprise she was named our most liberal senator, for her support of the Green New Deal and defunding the police. We can’t afford another four years of the Biden-Harris record. Donald Trump will Make America Great Once Again” Harris remains just 1 to 2 points behind after respondents read any of the following statements about Trump:

• Donald Trump took away the right to have an abortion. He bragged: “I was able to kill Roe v. Wade,” putting politicians in charge of making this decision instead of women, families, and their doctors. He even said “there has to be some kind of punishment” for women seeking abortions. And he has said he supports a national abortion ban – even in states where it is currently legal. Kamala Harris says it’s not right that young women now have fewer rights than their mothers and grandmothers. That’s why she’ll fight to restore a woman’s right to choose (net -1; 47 percent Harris – 48 percent Trump); 
• Donald Trump puts the wealthy and big corporations first. As president, budget-busting tax breaks that helped many large corporations get away with paying no federal income taxes at all and cut taxes for the ultra-rich. Now he wants to extend those tax breaks for the top 1% and leave everyday people behind. Under a Trump second term, the rich will just get richer while everyone else gets left behind. Kamala Harris is a former Prosecutor and Attorney General, who took on corporate polluters and Wall Street big banks. She’ll protect workers and consumers, not corporate CEOs (net -1; 47 percent Harris – 48 percent Trump); and,
• Donald Trump is a threat to our democracy. He incited a violent insurrection at the Capitol on January 6th to overturn the 2020 election results, leading to the deaths of police officers. He even said if he was re-elected, he would use the Justice Department to prosecute his political enemies, and fire thousands of civil servants like engineers and intelligence officers so he can replace them with his own loyalists. Kamala Harris is a former Prosecutor and Attorney General who took on violent criminals, sexual predators, and fraudsters. She’ll protect the rule of law, not weaken it (net -2; 46 percent Harris – 48 percent Trump).

Trump as a threat to our democracy, abortion rights, and economy are all compelling to voters.

The most convincing reasons voters, including low motivation Democrats, find for voting this November include that “Trump bragged about taking away a woman’s right to an abortion by helping kill Roe v. Wade and has said women seeking abortions should face “some kind of punishment,” Trump – along with his hand-picked Vice President J.D. Vance – have also supported a national abortion ban and could restrict abortion access even in states where it’s currently legal if re-elected (52 percent find this convincing, including 75 percent of low motivation Democrats), that “Trump is just out for himself and people like him. As president he gave a huge tax cut for the wealthy and big corporations. He was recently caught promising wealthy donors at a fundraiser that he’ll give them even more tax breaks. Trump’s plan already has cut corporate taxes to the lowest rate in over 80 years, and if re-elected he would cut corporate taxes again while raising taxes on middle and working-class families” (50 percent find this convincing, including 78 percent of low motivation Democrats), and that “Trump is a threat to our democracy. He tried to overturn the 2020 election results, leading to violence at the Capitol on January 6th. He said if re-elected, he would use the Justice Department to prosecute his political enemies and eliminate checks and balances by firing thousands of civil servants and replacing them with his own loyalists. He said he would terminate the Constitution” (50 percent find this convincing, including 75 percent of low motivation Democrats).