Poll: Trump Conviction
This Navigator Research report contains polling data on Americans’ reactions to former President Donald Trump being convicted of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in New York, including the shares who believe Trump has committed a crime, agree with the verdict, and think Trump was guilty of the counts he was accused of, as well as what impact these felony convictions have on whether Americans think Trump should still run for president.
Three in five Americans agree that Trump is guilty of the 34 felony counts on which he’s been convicted in New York.
By a 27-point margin, 59 percent of Americans believe Trump is guilty of these crimes compared to just 32 percent who believe he is innocent. Groups with significantly higher shares believing Trump is guilty include Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders (net +64; 80 percent guilty – 16 percent innocent), Black Americans (net +61; 76 percent guilty – 15 percent innocent), and college-educated women (net +48; 70 percent guilty – 22 percent innocent).
- Independents believe Trump is guilty of these crimes by a 35-point margin (58 percent guilty – 23 percent innocent) and those who are unfavorable to both and Trump and President Biden think Trump is guilty of these crimes by an even larger 61-point margin (76 percent guilty – 15 percent innocent).
Nearly two in three Americans now believe Donald Trump has committed a crime (64 percent), which is the largest share in Navigator’s tracking.
Nearly nine in ten Americans who are unfavorable to both Trump and Biden believe Trump has committed a crime (net +73; 84 percent committed a crime – 11 percent has not committed a crime), and a plurality of those who do not identify as MAGA Republicans believe he has committed a crime (net +6; 47 percent committed a crime – 41 percent has not committed a crime) as compared to an overwhelming share of those identifying as MAGA Republicans believing he is innocent (net -56; 20 percent committed a crime – 76 percent has not committed a crime).
- Awareness of Trump’s conviction registers one of the highest levels of awareness compared to recent events, with more than four in five having heard at least “some” about the verdict (82 percent) and a majority hearing “a lot” about it (56 percent). Nearly seven in ten are hearing mostly negative news about Trump (68 percent), and the news they’re hearing is dominated by his felony convictions.
Most Americans believe Trump was treated just as any other American would be instead of agreeing that the trial was rigged.
By 15 points, most Americans believe Trump’s trial was fair (53 percent fair – 38 percent unfair), including by 19 points among independents (49 percent fair – 30 percent unfair, with 21 percent who don’t know enough to say). When presented with opposing framings of the trial of “Donald Trump has been put on trial by our justice system the same way any other American would be” compared to“this trial was rigged from the start… it’s all been about scoring political points and hurting Trump in an election year,” the share grows to three in five who agree with the framing that Trump was put on trial the way any American would be (59 percent) than agree the trial was rigged (41 percent), including more than three in five independents (63 percent).
- The top worry Americans have about Trump’s conviction is that he “thinks he is above the law and that laws don’t apply to him” (37 percent), followed by that “he is a presidential candidate who is only running for president to get revenge and retribution” (26 percent) and that “he is a presidential candidate who is an embarrassment to our country and his party” (26 percent).
A narrow majority support Trump dropping out of the presidential race in light of his conviction.
51 percent of Americans say that Trump should drop out of the presidential election compared to 44 percent who believe he should still run. By 42-points, Americans who are unfavorable to both Trump and Biden believe Trump should drop out of the presidential race (24 percent should still run for president – 66 percent should drop out), as do majorities of moderates (net -15; 39 should still run for president – 54 percent should drop out) and independents (net -16; 35 percent should still run for president – 51 percent should drop out).
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About The Study
Global Strategy Group conducted a public opinion survey among a sample of 1,000 registered voters from May 30-June 3, 2024. 100 additional interviews were conducted among Hispanic voters. 75 additional interviews were conducted among Asian American and Pacific Islander voters. 100 additional interviews were conducted among African American voters. 105 additional interviews were conducted among independent voters. 200 additional interviews were conducted among voters ages 18-34. The survey was conducted online, recruiting respondents from an opt-in online panel vendor. Respondents were verified against a voter file and special care was taken to ensure the demographic composition of our sample matched that of the national registered voter population across a variety of demographic variables. The margin of error for the full sample at the 95 percent level of confidence is +/- 3.1 percentage points. The margin for error for subgroups varies and is higher.
