Navigator To Conduct Live Dial Reaction Groups With Swing Voters During State of the Union

Navigator To Conduct Live Dial Reaction Groups With Swing Voters During State of the Union

New Memo Details Polling From Biden’s First Year in Office Ahead of National Address

Washington, D.C. — Today, Navigator Research announced that it will conduct live dial groups in Denver, CO during the State of the Union to provide real-time reactions to President Biden’s address. The dial groups will be made up of approximately 25-30 swing voters from the Denver-metro area, including a mix of soft partisans and independents. Once concluded, Navigator will compile a report on reactions to the speech, including how sentiments toward the president and issues raised during the address shifted after listening. 

“The State of the Union address is more than a tradition; it’s a critical opportunity for President Biden to communicate successes and address the American public directly amid growing economic pessimism, pandemic fatigue, and frustrations over stalled federal legislation,” said Bryan Bennett, Senior Director of Polling and Analytics at the Hub Project and advisor to Navigator Research. “We know from the last year of polling that Americans broadly support many key elements of Biden’s agenda. They will be looking for him to speak to his record on the economy as well as his plan to fulfill core campaign promises, such as canceling student debt.” 

Ahead of the address, Navigator released a new memo based on over a year of tracking surveys to set the stage for the dial groups and provide insight into how Americans feel about some of the core issues facing the country and the Biden administration.

The memo covered four key areas related to President Biden over the last year:

  1. The Economy: Two in three Americans support the President’s economic agenda, but Americans are generally pessimistic about the state of the economy, with nine in ten (92 percent) believing the costs of everyday goods like groceries are going up. As they consider whether or not the economy is improving, job growth and GDP growth are two of the indicators that Americans trust most. 
  2. The Pandemic: By a 26-point margin, Americans trust President Biden and the Democratic Party more than the Republican Party to ensure enough people are vaccinated against the coronavirus pandemic. Now, more than three in five Americans approve of the vaccine rollout in the United States so far—a marked improvement from the mere 39 percent who approved of the rollout when Biden took office. 
  3. Public Perceptions on Biden: Biden’s approval rating (currently 43 percent approve) has declined over the past year, but his State of the Union appearance could be beneficial. Recent Navigator polling found 56 percent of people would like to hear from the president more. This is particularly true when considering constituencies that backed him in the last election yet his approval has eroded somewhat—for example, 84 percent of Black voters indicated they would like to hear more from him.
  4. Looking to the Future: Biden may also gain support if he were to announce action to cancel some amount of student loan debt. Canceling a portion of student loan debt is broadly supported by the public, including by 63 percent of those who have never had any student loan debt, and it would also increase perceptions among many that he is keeping campaign promises, particularly among those under the age of 35. Focus groups conducted by Navigator in January among Black voters also found student loan forgiveness would go a long way for participants in improving their quality of life. 

About Navigator Research

The Navigator Research project is designed to act as a consistent, flexible, responsive tool to inform policy debates. By conducting research and providing reliable guidance to inform allies, elected leaders, and the press, Navigator helps top leaders in Washington and grassroots leaders around the country shape the debate on the issues that matter most. Follow us on Twitter for the latest updates.

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NEW POLLING: Biden Scores Higher on ‘Keeping Campaign Promises’ if He Cancels Student Loan Debt

Student Loan Debt Forgiveness is Popular Among Majorities of Those With and Without Student Loan Debt

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today, Navigator Research released new polling showing more than three in five Americans (63 percent) support canceling a portion of student loan debt, including a majority of those who have never had any student loan debt (55 percent). This support includes more than eight in ten Democrats (83 percent), almost three in five Independents (59 percent), and two in five Republicans (41 percent). 

Canceling student loan debt is most popular among Black Americans (87 percent), followed by Hispanic Americans (72 percent, with even higher support among Hispanic Americans under the age of 45 (76 percent support). 

“This data shows that President Biden canceling student loan debt could be hugely consequential to millions of Americans facing significant financial burdens amidst the pain of rising costs — it would decrease the racial wealth gap and potentially help him regain support from Black and Hispanic Americans in particular, where he has seen erosion in job approval over the last few months,” said Bryan Bennett, Senior Director of Polling & Analytics at the Hub Project and Advisor to Navigator Research. “Even Americans who don’t carry student debt themselves are sympathetic and are supportive of loan forgiveness.” 

After exposure to messaging about student loans, data shows that if President Biden canceled a portion of federal student loan debt, it increases the belief that he has kept his campaign promises. Initially, Americans are split evenly on whether President Biden has kept his campaign promises (50 percent) or whether he has broken them (50 percent). However, when asked how that opinion might change if Biden canceled a portion of student loan debt, perceptions Biden has kept his campaign promises increased by 8 points overall (to 58 percent promises kept). Younger Americans under the age of 45 saw the largest positive movement, increasing 11 points from 53 percent who initially believe Biden is keeping his promises to 64 percent if he cancels a portion of student loan debt. 

A variety of different messages tested were largely seen as convincing by at least three in five Americans, with the top-testing messages focusing on helping millions of Americans better handle rising costs, whether because of factors like the pandemic and rising costs (68 percent convincing) or because costs are rising faster than incomes while education has become incredibly expensive (66 percent convincing). 

Canceling student loan debt would also significantly improve the perception among younger Black and Hispanic Americans’ perception that President Biden is keeping his campaign promises. Initially, Biden is net +10 with 55 percent of Hispanic Americans under the age of 45 believing he has kept his campaign promises (45 percent promises broken), but that jumps to 61 percent if he were to cancel student debt. Among Black Americans under the age of 45, 63 percent say that Biden is keeping his promises, which jumps to 70 percent if he cancels some debt. 

In Navigator’s focus groups among Black Americans in swing states last month, many participants cited canceling student loans as one of President Biden’s primary campaign promises. This is notable given that Biden’s approval has declined 10 points among Black Americans over the course of 2021 in Navigator’s tracking (from 86% to 76%).

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About Navigator Research

The Navigator Research project is designed to act as a consistent, flexible, responsive tool to inform policy debates. By conducting research and providing reliable guidance to inform allies, elected leaders, and the press, Navigator helps top leaders in Washington and grassroots leaders around the country shape the debate on the issues that matter most. Follow us on Twitter for the latest updates.

About the Study

Global Strategy Group conducted public opinion surveys among a sample of 1,000 registered voters from February 3-February 7, 2022. 101 additional interviews were conducted among Hispanic voters. 78 additional interviews were conducted among Asian American and Pacific Islander voters. 99 additional interviews were conducted among African American voters. 100 additional interviews were conducted among independent voters. The survey was conducted online, recruiting respondents from an opt-in online panel vendor. Respondents were verified against a voter file and special care was taken to ensure the demographic composition of our sample matched that of the national registered voter population across a variety of demographic variables. The margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level is +/- 3.1 percent.

About the Focus Groups

This release features findings from three focus groups conducted on January 25, 2022 with Black voters in three states: in Michigan with less politically engaged men (most of whom were in our February 2021 group), in Georgia with younger Democratic men, and in Texas with younger Democratic women. Qualitative results are not statistically projectable.

 

 

NEW POLLING: Americans Trust Biden To Nominate Next SCOTUS Justice; Call for More Visibility From VP Harris

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today, Navigator Research released new polling showing that 60 percent of Americans trust President Biden to nominate the next Supreme Court Justice. A majority of Democrats, Black Americans, and Hispanic Americans also indicated that the nomination of a new Justice increases their motivation to vote in the midterms.

“President Biden has the opportunity to follow through on a campaign promise by appointing the first Black woman Justice to the Supreme Court, and the majority of Americans trust him to pick the right person for the job,” said Bryan Bennett, Senior Director of Polling and Analytics at the Hub Project and Advisor to Navigator Research. “The White House and Democrats in the Senate should feel confident in expeditiously moving forward with the nomination process knowing that Americans support the president’s judgment to fill this vacancy on the Court.” 

When asked about different reasons for President Biden to follow through on his campaign promise to nominate a Black woman Justice to the Court, 64 percent of respondents indicated that making the Court look as diverse as the United States as a whole is a good reason for Biden to fulfill this promise, including 56 percent of independents. Respondents also reacted positively to the idea that appointing a Black woman judge would provide an important role model for children, with 62 percent of respondents agreeing that it was a good reason to nominate a Black woman to the Supreme Court.

The nomination of a new Supreme Court Justice also has implications for the 2022 midterm elections. Almost half (48 percent) of Americans say Biden’s nomination opportunity makes them more motivated to vote, with a majority (56 percent) of Democrats reporting being more motivated to vote by the nomination compared to just 45 percent of Republicans.

The nomination is particularly motivating for Black and Hispanic Americans, with three in five Black Americans and a majority (54 percent) of Hispanic Americans saying they are more motivated to vote by this issue.

Navigator also recently released additional findings from focus groups conducted with Black voters in Michigan, Georgia, and Texas, that shed light on how voters feel about Vice President Harris’s role and performance. Focus group participants largely agreed that her status as the country’s first Black female Vice President is significant, but also discussed their desire for more insight into her work and role. When asked to assign Harris a letter grade, most people gave her a C. Beyond increased visibility, participants also want to see Harris stand up for Black women in particular and take bolder stances on issues that impact them.

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About Navigator Research

The Navigator Research project is designed to act as a consistent, flexible, responsive tool to inform policy debates. By conducting research and providing reliable guidance to inform allies, elected leaders, and the press, Navigator helps top leaders in Washington and grassroots leaders around the country shape the debate on the issues that matter most. Follow us on Twitter for the latest updates.

About the Study

Global Strategy Group conducted public opinion surveys among a sample of 1,000 registered voters from February 3-February 7, 2022. 101 additional interviews were conducted among Hispanic voters. 78 additional interviews were conducted among Asian American and Pacific Islander voters. 99 additional interviews were conducted among African American voters. 100 additional interviews were conducted among independent voters. The survey was conducted online, recruiting respondents from an opt-in online panel vendor. Respondents were verified against a voter file and special care was taken to ensure the demographic composition of our sample matched that of the national registered voter population across a variety of demographic variables. The margin of error at the 95% confidence level is +/-3.1%. The margin of error on sub-samples is greater.

About the Focus Group

This release features findings from three focus groups conducted on January 25, 2022 with Black voters in three states: in Michigan with less politically engaged men (most of whom were in our February 2021 group), in Georgia with younger Democratic men, and in Texas with younger Democratic women. Qualitative results are not statistically projectable.

 

 

NEW REPORT: Focus Groups Reveal Black Voters in Swing States Call for Biden to Take More Action

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Since President Biden took office last January, his net approval rating among Black Americans has declined by 10 points points (from 86 percent then to 76 percent now in Navigator’s tracking, but the decline has been even more significant among younger Black Americans, whose approval fell from net +83 early in 2021 (88 percent approve – 5 percent disapprove) to net +35 today (63 percent approve – 28 percent disapprove).

To better examine this shift, Navigator Research and GBAO conducted focus groups last week with Black men in Michigan, young Black men in Georgia, and young Black women in Texas. In the groups, respondents discussed their perceptions of President Biden and Vice President Harris, voting rights, student loans, COVID, and Black history. 

VIEW THE REPORT HERE

When asked to grade President Biden, respondents gave him mostly Cs, with one Michigan man saying, “He’s not a savior, but he’s a darn good advocate.” Respondents agreed he’s competent and has made progress on issues like COVID and health care.

However, most respondents want Biden to promote his agenda more aggressively and be more visible in those efforts, with one Texas woman saying she wanted to see him “put his foot down.” One Michigan man noted that the comparison to his predecessor made the lack of visibility even more stark, saying, “If you noticed Trump the last four years and how active he was on camera and off camera with stimulus checks or whether it be this or that, you actually saw him doing work, whether it was good or bad. But Biden, you don’t even see him at all.”

In Navigator’s recent quantitative survey conducted January 20-24, 56 percent of Americans said they wanted to hear more from President Biden, including 4 in 5 Black Americans (84 percent). 

“The primary takeaway from these groups was an overwhelming desire to see and hear more from the president and vice president — people are frustrated not knowing what goes on behind closed doors,” said Jerel Williams, Vice President at GBAO and moderator of these focus groups. ““They heard his plans and now we want to see him taking action to enact them. At the same time, this desire comes from a genuine support of his policies and the knowledge that their passage would greatly benefit the Black community.” 

Some focus group respondents noted Democrats’ slim majorities in Congress, but most still believe President Biden could be doing more to pass his agenda, including rules reform. A Michigan man said, “he needs to get on the Senate. He needs to get on Manchin and Sinema and get whatever he’s trying to get done.” Another Michigan man said, “Those Republicans changed the rules for the filibuster… And yet the Democrats are saying, ‘Yeah, but we’re going to play by the rules or we’re going to play this way.’” 

This frustration is especially potent since Black Americans are very supportive of Biden’s agenda on voting rights (79 percent support) and the economy (78 percent support) in Navigator tracking over the last month. On the voting rights debate, respondents feel that the recent voter suppression bills have been passed as a direct result of Republican aggravation around their losses in 2020, with one Michigan man saying, “It’s getting to a point where the radicalization of one party is not going to be accepted by the masses. And they know it. And the only way to be able to beat that back is by… making it more difficult for those of us to get out there and vote.” Last month, 72 percent of Black Americans said they were supportive of eliminating the filibuster if it would lead to passing voting rights legislation.

Most respondents were also very supportive of student loan debt forgiveness and want to see swift action on that issue, with many citing it as a core campaign promise made by President Biden while a candidate. One Georgia man said, “And I really wish he was like putting his foot on student loans because that was his biggest thing on his campaign.” Participants also noted that debt forgiveness would specifically benefit the Black community, with one Texas woman saying that “more Black people would be able to purchase homes.” 

“These conversations demonstrate that Black voters believe President Biden is just as capable of delivering for them as they have proved capable of delivering for him,” said Isaiah Bailey, an advisor to Navigator Research. “Black voters strongly support the president’s agenda, but many are frustrated with his administration’s plodding approach to addressing important matters such as voting rights and student loan forgiveness. At the same time, our participants provided a sense that the president can rebound with Black voters by acting on the proposals he’s set forth.”

To discuss COVID, Navigator re-recruited mostly the same group of Black men in Michigan that discussed the pandemic in focus groups last February. While these participants last year mostly held a “wait and see approach” about vaccinations, this year’s discussion focused primarily on the influences which led many of them to embrace the COVID vaccine. Some discussed informal vaccine mandates, as one Michigan man shared: …my wife and I put some restrictions on coming into our house because we were vaccinated,” with another saying that his sister got vaccinated “as a birthday present” for him “because she knew I was very concerned.” 

Next week, Navigator will release additional data from these focus groups on how Black Americans are thinking about Vice President Kamala Harris and the debate about teaching Black history in America’s public schools — sign up to receive updates from Navigator here

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About Navigator Research

The Navigator Research project is designed to act as a consistent, flexible, responsive tool to inform policy debates. By conducting research and providing reliable guidance to inform allies, elected leaders, and the press, Navigator helps top leaders in Washington and grassroots leaders around the country shape the debate on the issues that matter most. Follow us on Twitter for the latest updates.

About the Focus Groups

GBAO conducted three online focus groups were conducted on January 25, 2022 with Black voters in three states: less politically engaged men in Michigan (most of whom were in our February 2021 group), younger Democratic men in Georgia, and younger Democratic women in Texas. Some quotes have been lightly edited for brevity. Qualitative results are not statistically projectable.

 

NEW POLLING: Biden Economic Plan Increases Americans’ Trust in Democrats, Would Ease High Economic Anxiety

Americans Continue to Trust Democrats More to Handle Pandemic & Support Biden’s Mask Plans

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today, Navigator Research released new polling showing Americans remain pessimistic on the state of the national economy: 73 percent said they would rate the state of the economy today as “not so good” or “poor,” compared with just one in four who said they would rate it as “excellent” or “good” (25 percent). Meanwhile, a majority of Americans (52 percent) feel “uneasy” about their personal financial situation (53 percent) while 42 percent say they feel “confident.” However, after Americans learn about Biden’s economic plan, they have stronger trust in Democrats’ ability to handle inflation. 

Inflation remains a key issue. Since early January, there has been a 3-point increase in the share who say they are “very concerned” about the rate of inflation in the coming months (to 61 percent) and a 4-point increase in the share who say gas prices are going up “a lot” (to 67 percent).

After reading Biden’s economic plan, however, trust in Biden and Democrats to handle rising costs over Republicans improves by a net 10 points to a 9-point advantage (49 percent trust Biden/Democrats more versus 40 percent that trust Republicans more) and inflation by a net 6 points to a statistical draw (42 percent trust Biden/Democrats more versus 43 percent that trust Republicans more) when compared to their level of trust prior to reading the plan. 

By a 32-point margin overall, there is broad support for Biden’s economic agenda, and support for his economic plan among independents rose 7 points (+15 to +22) since two weeks ago. Among the most popular elements of Biden’s plan were lowering drug prices, taxing the rich and corporations, and making childcare more affordable. 

When it comes to the pandemic, polling shows seven in ten Americans have heard of the Biden administration’s new policies to distribute free coronavirus tests and N95 masks. Both initiatives earn significant bipartisan support, with 76 percent supporting the launching of this website and 69 percent in support of their plan to distribute 400 million free N95 masks to Americans. 

Among Independents, President Biden and Democrats remain more trusted to handle pandemic-related issues by 28 points over Republicans. Among vaccinated Americans, the Republican focus on conspiracies and misinformation raises the most doubts on their approach to handling the pandemic. 

There’s strong evidence passing his economic agenda would benefit the way Americans perceive President Biden. Independents become more likely to agree Biden has kept his campaign promises if his economic plan is passed (from 45 percent to 51 percent) while intensity of keeping his promises improves by 17 points among Democrats (from 35 percent who strongly agree to 52 percent) and 16 points among Black Americans (from 35 percent who strongly agree to 51 percent).

“It is clear Americans trust President Biden and Democrats in Congress to handle the pandemic more than Republicans, and if they can get his broadly popular economic agenda through Congress, the public will respond positively to their efforts,” said Bryan Bennett, Senior Director of Polling and Analytics at the Hub Project. “Congress and the administration should deliver on an economic agenda as soon as possible when Americans are clearly looking for action to be taken and promises to be fulfilled.”

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About Navigator Research

The Navigator Research project is designed to act as a consistent, flexible, responsive tool to inform policy debates. By conducting research and providing reliable guidance to inform allies, elected leaders, and the press, Navigator helps top leaders in Washington and grassroots leaders around the country shape the debate on the issues that matter most. Follow us on Twitter for the latest updates.

About the Study

Global Strategy Group conducted public opinion surveys among a sample of 1,000 registered voters from January 20 – January 24, 2021. 100 additional interviews were conducted among Hispanic voters. 75 additional interviews were conducted among Asian American and Pacific Islander voters. 100 additional interviews were conducted among African American voters. 100 additional interviews were conducted among independent voters. The survey was conducted online, recruiting respondents from an opt-in online panel vendor. Respondents were verified against a voter file and special care was taken to ensure the demographic composition of our sample matched that of the national registered voter population across a variety of demographic variables. The margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level is +/- 3.1 percent.

 

 

NEW POLLING: Nearly A Year Since the Capitol Insurrection, Voters Worry that Trump Supporters Dictate the Republican Agenda

Seven in Ten Voters Oppose Continue to Oppose the Insurrection, Two in Three See a Sustained Risk to Democracy

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today, Navigator Research released new polling showing Americans remain deeply concerned about the implications of the January 6th insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. Of those who don’t strongly approve of Republicans in Congress, more than seven in ten (72 percent) remain concerned that Republicans in Congress have allowed white supremacist factions who were present at the attack to define the direction of their party, including 77 percent of Independents.

Meanwhile, two in three voters (67 percent) remain concerned that after the insurrection failed, Republicans are now rigging the election rules in states to make it easier to steal future elections.

Ahead of 2022, a vast majority of voters continue to oppose the actions of Trump supporters at the U.S. Capitol on January 6th. By a 53-point margin, the public opposes the actions of the Trump supporters who broke into the Capitol building (19 percent support – 72 percent oppose), including more than two in three Independents (68 percent oppose) and three in five Republicans (61 percent oppose). An overwhelming majority (78 percent) also say it is important “for federal law enforcement agencies to find and prosecute those who broke into the U.S. Capitol on January 6th.”

There is also widespread support for the ongoing House investigation of the insurrection. Nearly seven in ten (69 percent) support the investigation, including two in three Independents (67 percent) and nearly half of Republicans (48 percent).

In a messaging battery about the January 6th attacks, two-thirds of Americans agreed with every statement tested about the long-term impacts on our democracy. 75 percent of Independents were persuaded of the ties between January 6th and “rigging election rules in states across the country to make it easier to successfully steal future elections” and electing “an extremist minority.”

“A vast majority of Americans recognize that January 6th was not just a single event that failed to subvert a free and failed election. It has become the centerpiece of an extended campaign by Republicans to make future efforts to undermine our democracy succeed,” said Bryan Bennett, Senior Director of Polling and Analytics at the Hub Project. “An overwhelming number of Americans watched in horror as the Capitol was breached on January 6th, and many see the Republican Party as beholden to the type of people who committed that act. It has left most Americans concerned about the future of our democracy.” 

This research also found that an overwhelming majority of Americans watched live as the insurrection took place. 75 percent of respondents said they watched live on the news as the attack unfolded on January 6th. Despite media echo chambers, the coverage of the events on January 6th broke through all mediums where majorities report viewing news on platforms, including social media (77 percent), Fox News (78 percent), and local television (80 percent).

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About Navigator Research

The Navigator Research project is designed to act as a consistent, flexible, responsive tool to inform policy debates. By conducting research and providing reliable guidance to inform allies, elected leaders, and the press, Navigator helps top leaders in Washington and grassroots leaders around the country shape the debate on the issues that matter most. Follow us on Twitter for the latest updates.

About the Study

This release features findings from national online surveys of 1,000 registered voters conducted November 18-22, 2021 and December 3-6, 2021. Additional interviews were conducted among 100 Hispanic voters per survey, 100 African American voters per survey, 100 independents without a partisan lean per survey, and 70 Asian American and Pacific Islander voters per survey. The surveys were conducted online, recruiting respondents from an opt-in online panel vendor. Respondents were verified against a voter file and special care was taken to ensure the demographic composition of our sample matched that of the national registered voter population across a variety of demographic variables. The margin of error at the 95 percent confidence level for each survey is +/- 3.1 percent.