Poll: National Guard Deployments

This Navigator Research report covers perceptions of the Trump administration’s deployment of troops to American cities.

While Americans are far more focused on the economy than crime, crime remains an important issue: 22 percent of Americans believe crime should be a top priority, including a quarter of Black and Hispanic Americans, 26 percent of blue collar workers, and 25 percent of independents.

This is also an issue where President Trump and Republicans hold a durable advantage over Democrats in Congress. Half (48 percent) of Americans trust Trump and Republicans to handle crime, compared to 40 percent who trust Democrats. Republicans hold an 11-point advantage among independents, a 14-point advantage among parents, and an 8-point advantage among those who identify as middle class.

On keeping Americans safe, President Trump and Congressional Republicans are trusted by 6 points. Independents are split on which party they trust to keep Americans safe (33 percent Democrats, 34 percent Republicans).

Asked open-endedly about what positive news they were hearing about Trump recently, crime clearly breaks through for many Americans, primarily Republicans, as they heard the news about his troop deployments.

Troop Deployments

Half of Americans oppose President Trump deploying National Guard troops to DC, including 53 percent of independents and 57 percent of Americans living in urban areas. Half of passive news consumers (those who say the news comes to them, primarily via social media) also oppose the deployment to the nation’s capital.

When asked broadly about deploying troops to American cities to address crime, Americans support the measure by 4 points (49 percent support, 45 percent oppose). However, when given the context that “Donald Trump has discussed sending National Guard troops to big cities across the country to address crime,” Americans oppose the proposal by 5 points (44 percent support, 49 percent oppose). The shift in opposition when Donald Trump is added to the framing is driven by Democrats, and people of color, in particular.

Concerns

The biggest concerns regarding Trump’s deployment of National Guard troops are:

1. He’s going to keep escalating and creating chaos to see how far he can go.
2. This is just the beginning and more liberal leaning cities like Chicago and New York are next.

Independents are also concerned about civil liberties violations and that law-abiding citizens are being harassed without doing anything wrong.

Citing crime statistics, e.g. stating that crime is actually down in DC, or arguing that this is a distraction from the Epstein case, are less effective.

We tested two progressive crime and safety messages against the same Republican argument:

“Trump and Republicans who say that people don’t feel safe, and it’s time we took action to change that. The National Guard is helping to restore safety and security to our nation’s cities.”

One progressive message attacks President Trump’s troop deployment:

“Trump is breaking the law by deploying the National Guard, manufacturing fear and social media moments, hurting small businesses, and not making cities any safer.”

The second leads by acknowledging that crime is a problem and offers a progressive alternative.

“Our country has a serious problem with crime and safety, but deploying armed troops in our streets isn’t the answer. We need to support local law enforcement, keep guns out of criminals’ hands, and do more to address the root causes of crime like poverty, drug addiction, and mental illness.”

The attack frame beats the Republican message by 2 points overall. The solutions message beats the Republican message by 28 points overall and is far more successful among key groups.