• Polling

Two in Three Americans Believe Donald Trump Committed a Crime

Thursday, January 25, 2024 By Maryann Cousens
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Poll: Biden and Trump

This Navigator Research report contains polling data on what the public is hearing about former President Trump and President Biden in the news, as well as tracking on whether or not Americans believe Trump committed a crime as president, whether the public thinks he will be convicted of crimes of which he is accused, and how concerning Americans find recent statements by Trump to be, particularly on the issues of democracy and abortion rights.

A growing share of Americans – now nearly two in three – say Trump committed a crime as President.


Nearly two in three Americans now believe Trump has committed a crime, a high in Navigator’s tracking; however, only about one in three Americans think he will be convicted of any crimes, the lowest in Navigator’s tracking. By a 33-point margin, 63 percent of Americans believe Donald Trump committed a crime while he was president compared to just 30 percent who do not, up a net 11 points from November 2022. This includes three in five independents who believe Trump committed a crime while president (net +37; 61 percent did commit – 24 percent did not). Among Americans who have unfavorable opinions toward both Trump and President Biden, more than four in five believe Trump has committed a crime (net +71; 82 percent did commit – 11 percent did not).

  • At the same time, the share who believe Trump will be convicted of any of the crimes he is accused of has declined since last fall (from net +2 then to net -12 now): only 36 percent believe Trump will be convicted of any crimes of which he is accused, including 34 percent of independents.
Bar graph of polling data from Navigator Research. Title: Three in Five Say Trump Committed a Crime, But Fewer Now Say He Will Be Convicted Than Said the Same in September

Americans are most concerned by Donald Trump’s anti-democratic statements and statements calling for the punishment for women who have abortions.


Three in five Americans are concerned by Trump recently “calling for ‘the termination of all rules, regulations, and articles, even those found in the Constitution’ so that he could be reinstated as President” (60 percent, including 49 percent of Americans who are “very” concerned by this statement). Similarly, 60 percent of Americans find it concerning that Trump “said he could use the Department of Justice to go after his political opponents, weaponizing federal law enforcement” to be concerning (including 46 percent who are “very” concerned by this statement), and 59 percent of Americans are concerned by Trump previously saying “‘there has to be some form of punishment’ for women who have abortions” (including 49 percent who are “very” concerned by this statement).

  • Among Americans who report having unfavorable opinions toward both Trump and President Biden, more than seven in ten Americans find these statements to be concerning, including 76 percent who are concerned by his calling for terminating the Constitution, 72 percent who are concerned by his saying he would use the Department of Justice to go after his political opponents, 71 percent who are concerned by his statement that women who have abortions should receive some form of punishment, as well as 74 percent who also find it concerning that he has said he wants to try to repeal the Affordable Care Act again.
Bar graph of polling data from Navigator Research. Title: Most Concerning Recent Trump Comments: “Terminating” Constitution, Abortion Punishment, Weaponizing Gov’t

By double digits, more Americans are hearing more news about Donald Trump than President Biden, and also hearing more negative news about Trump than Biden.


In this survey — which was fielded in the first week of January — two in three Americans reported hearing at least some about Donald Trump in the news (64 percent), while a smaller majority reported hearing about President Biden in the news (54 percent). Most say that what they have seen, read, or heard about Donald Trump over the past few days had been mostly negative (52 percent) with an additional 21 percent who had heard a mix of negative and positive news, while only 36 percent of Americans saying the news they had consumed recently about Joe Biden had been negative, with an additional 25 percent who had heard a mix of negative and positive news. 

  • When describing the most common negative things they have seen, read, or heard recently about President Biden, Americans most frequently used the words “old” and “border.” When describing the negative news they have been hearing about Donald Trump, Americans most frequently use the words “ballot,” “states,” and “January 6th.”
Bar graph of polling data from Navigator Research. Title: Americans Are Hearing More About Trump Than Biden, Especially Negative News About Ballot Fights, January 6th

Americans Support Raising Taxes on the Wealthy and Big Corporations

Polling data on Americans’ support for raising taxes on the wealthy, perceptions of the positions of Democrats in Congress and Republicans in Congress on taxes, and who Americans trust most to handle cost of living and making the tax system more fair.

Inflation and the Economy Remain Top Issue Priorities for Americans

Polling on the top issues facing the country, perceptions of which party is most trusted to handle those issues, and the latest perceptions of both President Biden and former President Trump.

Democrats in Congress Seen As Most Likely to Protect Abortion Rights

Battleground perceptions on Democratic lawmakers, including favorability ratings and trust levels by issue.

About The Study

Global Strategy Group conducted public opinion surveys among a sample of 1,000 registered voters from January 4-January 8, 2024. 100 additional interviews were conducted among Hispanic voters. 75 additional interviews were conducted among Asian American and Pacific Islander voters. 100 additional interviews were conducted among African American voters. 100 additional interviews were conducted among independent voters. The survey was conducted online, recruiting respondents from an opt-in online panel vendor. Respondents were verified against a voter file and special care was taken to ensure the demographic composition of our sample matched that of the national registered voter population across a variety of demographic variables.

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About Navigator

In a world where the news cycle is the length of a tweet, our leaders often lack the real-time public-sentiment analysis to shape the best approaches to talking about the issues that matter the most. Navigator is designed to act as a consistent, flexible, responsive tool to inform policy debates by conducting research and reliable guidance to inform allies, elected leaders, and the press. Navigator is a project led by pollsters from Global Strategy Group and GBAO along with an advisory committee, including: Andrea Purse, progressive strategist; Arkadi Gerney, The Hub Project; Joel Payne, The Hub Project; Christina Reynolds, EMILY’s List; Delvone Michael, Working Families; Felicia Wong, Roosevelt Institute; Mike Podhorzer, AFL-CIO; Jesse Ferguson, progressive strategist; Navin Nayak, Center for American Progress Action Fund; Stephanie Valencia, EquisLabs; and Melanie Newman, Planned Parenthood Action Fund.

For press inquiries contact: press@navigatorresearch.org