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2024 Post-Election Survey: Trump Won “Swing Voters” by 8 Points

Wednesday, November 20, 2024 By Bryan Bennett
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Exit Poll: Swing Voters

This Navigator Research report is the first in a series of releases of findings from our post-election survey among 5,000 self-reported 2024 general election voters. This release focuses on the key voting blocks that delivered Donald Trump’s presidential election victory, as well as perceptions of both Kamala Harris and Trump, and how Americans assess the national landscape compared to that of 2020.

Donald Trump won the presidential election in large part by winning “swing voters.”


“Swing voters” — defined here as those who did not rule out voting for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris from the start of the campaign — largely delivered Trump’s victory, voting for the former president by 8 points. 41 percent of “swing voters” supported Donald Trump and 33 percent supported Kamala Harris, with the remainder voting for third-party candidates (22 percent) or skipping the presidential election on their ballot (4 percent). While their vote in the presidential election leaned Republican, swing voters were split in Senate races (44 percent Democratic candidate – 44 percent Republican candidate) and House races (45 percent Democratic candidate – 45 percent Republican candidate), and broke narrowly for Democratic candidates in gubernatorial races by 4 points (45 percent Democratic candidate – 41 percent Republican candidate). 

  • “Swing voters” were a group significantly younger and more racially diverse than the electorate overall. A majority of swing voters were under the age of 45 (56 percent), 20 points greater than the share of all 2024 voters (36 percent). Moreover, 17 percent of “swing voters” were Black (compared to 12 percent of the overall electorate), 14 percent were Hispanic (compared to 10 percent overall), and 8 percent were Asian Americans and Pacific Islanders (8 percent, compared to 5 percent overall).
  • While “swing voters” helped Trump carve a path to victory, he was also able to assemble a coalition of base Trump voters (38 percent of the electorate) along with a combination of first-time Trump voters and 2020 Trump voters who at least considered Harris in 2024 (11 percent of the electorate). This group was similarly overwhelmingly younger, with 55 percent under the age of 45 (compared to 36 percent overall), and in particular driven by younger men, who were 42 percent of these voters (compared to 25 percent of the overall electorate).
A chart breaking down demographic groups among survey respondents. Title: Swing Voters Were Younger and Less White Than Voters Overall
A chart breaking down demographic groups among survey respondents. Title: Younger Men Were Key to Trump’s Victory

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Both candidates went into election night with slightly underwater favorability ratings, including among “swing voters.”


Kamala Harris went into the presidential election with a favorability rating that was 5 points underwater among the 2024 electorate (47 percent favorable – 52 percent unfavorable) while Donald Trump went into the election with a net favorability rating underwater by 6 points (47 percent favorable – 53 percent unfavorable). Among “swing voters,” Harris’ favorability rating was slightly more underwater (net -10; 43 percent favorable – 53 percent unfavorable) than Trump’s (net -7; 46 percent favorable – 53 percent unfavorable). Similarly among “swing voters,” the Democratic Party’s net favorability was 12 points underwater (42 percent favorable – 54 percent unfavorable), while the Republican Party’s net favorability was closer to even at just 4 points underwater (45 percent favorable – 49 percent unfavorable).

  • Though Trump’s net negative favorability rating was underwater among “swing voters” by 7 points, nearly three in five of these voters retrospectively approved of Trump’s job handling during his first term as president (59 percent approve – 37 percent disapprove).
Bar graph of polling data from Navigator Research. Title: Trump and Harris Ended the Campaign With Similar Favorability Ratings
Bar graph of polling data from Navigator Research. Title: Even Though Swing Voters Had Net Negative Favorability Ratings of Trump, Three in Five Approved of His First Term

Perceptions of the economy were a decisive factor for Trump winning swing voters in the election.


Three in four “swing voters” had negative views of the direction of the country and the economy, and disapproved of Biden’s handling of the economy going into election night. Seven in ten voters had negative views of the national economy (70 percent), including three in four “swing voters” (76 percent). Similar majorities of the overall electorate believed the country was off on the wrong track (63 percent), including 63 percent of swing voters — an almost identical margin to where it was at the time of the 2020 presidential election when Biden defeated Trump. At the same time, President Biden held job approval ratings that were below 40 percent in terms of his overall job performance (net -22; 38 percent approve – 60 percent disapprove) and when it came to handling the economy (net -24; 37 percent approve – 61 percent disapprove). Among “swing voters,” Biden’s disapproval rating rose to seven in ten among this group (net -46; 25 percent approve – 71 percent disapprove).

  • Nearly three in five “swing voters” reported experiencing personal financial hardship: a majority (57 percent) said they were making ends meet, but just barely (43 percent) or were not making ends meet (14 percent). Just 28 percent who said they were comfortably making ends meet and 15 percent saying they were having no trouble making ends meet.
Bar graph of polling data from Navigator Research. Title: Voters Across the Board Were Deeply Pessimistic About the State of the Country
Bar graph of polling data from Navigator Research. Title: Views of the Economy Remained Deeply Negative Headed Into Election Day, Outside of Harris’ Base
Bar graph of polling data from Navigator Research. Title: Disapproval of Biden's Handling of the Presidency and the Economy Underscored Deep Frustration With the Status Quo
Bar graph of polling data from Navigator Research. Title: Swing Voters Broke Against Harris But Were Tied Down-Ballot; They Deeply Disapproved of Biden and Approved of Trump

Read More

2024 Post-Election Survey: Ideological Debates in the Election

Polling data on the top issues for voters going into the 2024 election and attitudes voters had on a variety of different ideological debates at stake in the election.

2024 Post-Election Survey: A Majority of New Trump Voters Used Social Media as Main News Source

Report on the 2024 election media environment, including the electorate’s news sources and the most popular social media platforms among swing voters.

2024 Post-Election Survey: The Reasons for Voting for Trump and Harris

Polling data on voters’ top reasons for supporting Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, including perceptions of how each candidate prioritized issues.

About The Study

Global Strategy Group conducted an online survey of 5,000 registered voters from October 31st through November 9th, 2024, with respondents recruited from opt-in online panel vendors. Of that 5,000, 4,784 respondents were verified against a voter file (and the other 216 were voters who said they were registering before voting if interviewed before Election Day) and special care was taken to ensure the demographic composition of the sample reflected that of the expected 2024 electorate. The vote shares for Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, House and Senate Democrats, and House and Senate Republicans were also adjusted to reflect a preliminary estimate of the vote in the 2024 election. The margin of error for the full sample at the 95 percent level of confidence is +/- 1.4 percentage points. The margin of error for subgroups varies and is higher.

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About Navigator

In a world where the news cycle is the length of a tweet, our leaders often lack the real-time public-sentiment analysis to shape the best approaches to talking about the issues that matter the most. Navigator is designed to act as a consistent, flexible, responsive tool to inform policy debates by conducting research and reliable guidance to inform allies, elected leaders, and the press. Navigator is a project led by pollsters from Global Strategy Group and GBAO along with an advisory committee, including: Andrea Purse, progressive strategist; Arkadi Gerney, The Hub Project; Joel Payne, The Hub Project; Christina Reynolds, EMILY’s List; Delvone Michael, Working Families; Felicia Wong, Roosevelt Institute; Mike Podhorzer, AFL-CIO; Jesse Ferguson, progressive strategist; Navin Nayak, Center for American Progress Action Fund; Stephanie Valencia, EquisLabs; and Melanie Newman, Planned Parenthood Action Fund.

For press inquiries contact: press@navigatorresearch.org