Exit Poll: Racial Demographics

This Navigator Research report is the fifth in a series of releases of findings from our post-election survey among 5,000 self-reported 2024 general election voters. This release focuses on how racial groups voted in the 2024 election, including what issues mattered most when deciding who to vote for, and how vote shares compared to that of the 2020 election.

Trump overperformed with voters across racial demographics, particularly among men of color.

Donald Trump improved his standing with voters across racial demographics, including white voters (from net +13 in 2020 to net +16; 40 percent Harris – 56 percent Trump), Hispanic voters (from net +38 in 2020 to net +11; 53 percent Harris – 42 percent Trump), Asian-American and Pacific Islanders (from net +31 in 2020 to net +20; 58 percent Harris – 38 percent Trump), and Black Americans (from net +84 in 2020 to net +67; 81 percent Harris – 14 percent Trump). 

• The largest shifts in support were seen among men, particularly men of color. Donald Trump won the vote of Hispanic men by one point (49 percent Harris – 50 percent Trump), a 35-point difference from 2020, when Joe Biden won the vote of Hispanic men by a 34-point margin. Similarly, there was a 35-point difference in how Black men voted in 2024 compared to 2020. While Black men voted for Harris in 2024 by a 47-point margin (71 percent Harris – 24 percent Trump), it was significantly less than Biden who won the vote of Black men by an 82-point margin over Trump in 2020. White men also moved toward Trump by 5 points (net +23; 37 percent Harris – 60 percent Trump), compared to his margin of 18 points in 2020 (40 percent Harris – 58 percent Trump).
• Black women and white women both remained consistent in their votes from 2020, with Black women voting for Harris by an 83-point margin (90 percent Harris – 7 percent Trump, Biden net +85 in 2020), and white women voting for Trump by 10-points (43 percent Harris – 53 percent Trump, Trump net +8 in 2020). 
• Among women, Hispanic women saw the most dramatic decline in Democratic support: Biden won Hispanic women by 40 points in 2020 (69 percent Biden – 29 percent Trump), while Harris won Hispanic women by 21 points (57 percent Harris – 36 percent Trump). 
• By a 5-point margin, Harris won the vote of younger Hispanic voters (50 percent Harris – 45 percent Trump), a drastic decline in support for the Democratic candidate since 2020, where Biden won the vote share of younger Hispanic voters by a 50-point margin.

Disapproval of the direction of the country, the state of the economy, and President Biden’s handling of the presidency was widespread among white and Hispanic voters.

By a 36-point margin, the overall electorate indicated the country was off on the wrong track (27 percent right direction – 63 percent off on the wrong track), including white voters by a 40-point margin (26 percent right direction – 66 percent off on the wrong track) and Hispanic voters by a 29-point margin (30 percent right direction – 59 percent off on the wrong track). The same groups were overwhelmingly pessimistic about the state of the economy, with white voters having negative attitudes towards the economy by 46-points (26 percent positive – 72 percent negative) and Hispanic voters by 42-points (28 percent positive – 70 percent negative). Black voters, while still negative about the economy (net -18; 39 percent positive – 57 percent negative), approved of Biden’s handling of the economy by 29-points (62 percent approve – 33 percent disapprove), compared to white and Hispanic voters who disapproved of Biden’s handling of the economy (net -34 and net -18, respectively). 

• Retrospective views of Trump’s handling of the presidency were mixed, with 59 percent of white voters, 48 percent of Hispanic voters, 35 percent of AAPI voters, and 25 percent of Black voters approving of his job as president.

Across racial demographics, inflation and the cost of living was the most important issue in deciding who to vote for.

46 percent of white voters, 42 percent of Hispanic and Asian-American and Pacific Islander voters, and 31 percent of Black voters indicated inflation and the cost of living was a top three issue for them in deciding who to vote for in the 2024 election. Immigration and the border was the second most popular issue among the overall electorate (31 percent indicated as a top three issue), particularly among white voters (35 percent) and Hispanic voters (27 percent). 23 percent of voters indicated abortion as an important issue in deciding who they would vote for, including 26 percent of Black voters and 24 percent of Hispanic voters.

Harris held advantages on most issues among voters of color, but was underwater among white and Hispanic men on economic issues.

Harris held large advantages on handling abortion (net +18; 49 percent trust Harris – 31 percent trust Trump), making health care more affordable (net +14; 48 percent trust Harris – 34 percent trust Trump), and safeguarding the future of Social Security and Medicare (net +5; 46 percent trust Harris – 41 percent trust Trump). On economic issues, Trump held an advantage among the overall electorate on issues like inflation (net +13; 52 percent trust Trump – 39 percent trust Harris), the state of the national economy (net +12; 52 percent trust Trump – 40 percent trust Harris), and reducing costs for regular people (net +1; 47 percent trust Trump – 46 percent trust Harris). White voters were the most likely to trust Trump on economic issues, trusting Trump by double-digit margins on reducing costs (net +13), handling the state of the national economy (net +25), and handling inflation (net +26). Hispanic men also indicated trusting Trump more to handle inflation (net +11), and the economy (net +10), but trusted Harris more when it came to reducing costs for normal people (+2).

• Trump’s greatest trust advantage among the overall electorate was in handling immigration and border security, including among white voters by 31-points, Asian-American and Pacific Islander voters by 9-points, and Hispanic voters by 4-points.

Young men of color did not vote for the Democratic candidate the same way they did in 2020, an effect of deep pessimism about the country and their focus on reducing costs.

Black and Hispanic men between the ages of 18-44 were pessimistic about the economy by double-digit margins going into election day (net -11 and net -29, respectively), as both groups also cited inflation and the economy as top three issues in deciding their vote (young Black men; 39 percent jobs and the economy, 27 percent inflation – young Hispanic men; 39 percent inflation, 37 percent jobs and the economy). Young Black and Hispanic men also retrospectively approved of Trump’s handling of the presidency (net +2 and net +16, respectively). Trump’s retrospective approval plus pessimism about the economy led to a much lower vote share for the Democratic candidate in 2024 than in 2020 among these groups, with young Hispanic men splitting their vote between Harris and Trump (49 percent Harris – 49 percent Trump), and Black men voting for Harris by 34-points (64 percent Harris – 30 percent Trump), a much smaller margin than their vote for Biden in 2020 (net +73; 86 percent Biden – 13 percent Trump).