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Poll: Government Shutdown

This Navigator Research report covers awareness of and blame for the government shutdown.

Shutdown News

The government shutdown is still top of mind for Americans. Three quarters of respondents are hearing at least some news about the government shutdown, similar to 75 percent from our tracking last week. Awareness is slightly lower among independents at 62 percent. This week’s tracking finds a 9-point uptick in awareness among passive news consumers, 66 percent of whom have now heard a lot or some about shutdown.

64 percent believe the shutdown will have a negative impact on them personally, up from half who thought the same last week. Even more (77 percent) believe it will have a negative impact on the country. 

By a 14-point margin (47 percent – 33 percent), Americans blame President Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress for the government shutdown, up 4 points from our tracking last week. Independents blame Trump and Republicans over congressional Democrats by 23 points (13 percent – 36 percent), however a plurality continue to blame both parties (43 percent).

A plurality believe Trump and Republicans in Congress have the power to end the shutdown over Democrats in Congress, though a third say both have equal power to end it. When forced to choose between Trump and Republicans or Democrats, a majority say Trump and Republicans have the power to end it (52 percent – 21 percent) showing no change week over week. 

Americans see Trump and Republicans as trying to keep the government shut down. By 9 points, Americans say Republicans in Congress have tried to shut the government down, and they blame Trump by 11 points. Americans are split on whether Democrats are trying to keep the government open (44 percent open – 44 percent shut), but still give them more credit than Trump and Republicans for trying to keep the government open. 

Impressions of what Democrats are fighting for in the shutdown remain mixed, while Trump and Republicans are underwater on the same metric. 42 percent have a positive impression of what Democrats in Congress are fighting for, and among those with a positive impression, health care is cited as the top positive aspect of the Democrats’ fight in the shutdown. 

Republicans in Congress, however, fare much worse on this question (-14 points underwater), doubling their negative margin on what they’re fighting for in this shutdown from last week (-7 points). Similarly to the positive sentiment for Democrats, negative sentiment for Republicans is driven by concerns over health care. Donald Trump, however, has remained stable week over week in the amount of Americans who have a negative impression of what he’s fighting for in the shutdown. 

Americans have only grown in their desire for Republicans to compromise with Democrats. By 39 points (64 percent – 25 percent), Americans say Trump and Republicans should compromise with Democrats in Congress, up 9 points from last week. In contrast, Americans say Democrats should compromise with Trump and Republicans by just 6 points. 

More believe Democrats in Congress are focused on the right things by 8 points (50 percent right things – 42 percent wrong things), while Republicans in Congress are underwater on the same measure by 6 points, doubling last week’s margin (44 percent right things – 50 percent wrong things). A plurality of independents continue to think both Democrats and Republicans are focused on the wrong things.

Shutdown Stagnation, Health Care Costs, and Food Assistance Rise to Top Concerns

While health care costs remain a top concern for Americans, SNAP funding and the shutdown itself are equally concerning. Most Americans say they have heard “a lot” (42 percent) or “some” (30 percent) about SNAP running out of funds on November 1st if the shutdown continues. Blame for SNAP running out of funds similarly falls on Trump and Republicans in Congress by a 21-point margin. 

When looking just at top concerns on consequences of the shutdown alone, health insurance costs doubling for Americans is tied with an indefinite shutdown for the top concerns, with 80 percent of Americans being extremely or somewhat concerned. The third-highest concern is millions of children and pregnant women losing access to healthy food, at 79 percent. 

Trump hits bottom

As the shutdown continues, President Trump’s overall approval rating (-16) and economic job approval (-21) remain underwater, the lowest point both of these metrics have been since the beginning of our shutdown tracking. 

While Trump has experienced low job approval ratings in the past, this is the lowest economic rating in Navigator tracking since 2018. These low numbers surpass his previous lowest economic ratings in April, following the administration’s so-called Liberation Day, when his rating was -16. 

Disapproval remained identical among Democrats but has grown among both independents (from -31 to -51) and Republicans (from +61 to +52). 

Poll: Government Shutdown

This Navigator Research report covers awareness of and blame for the government shutdown.

Shutdown News

The government shutdown continues to dominate the negative news Americans are hearing about President Trump, as well as Democrats and Republicans in Congress. Three quarters (75 percent) are hearing at least some news about the government shutdown, slightly lower among independents (62 percent) and passive news consumers (57 percent).

Half of Americans believe the government shutdown will have a negative impact on them personally, up from 42 percent last week. Even more (74 percent) believe it will have a negative impact on the country.

Shutdown Blame

By a 10-point margin, Americans blame Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress (45 percent – 35 percent) for the government shutdown. The margin is unchanged from our tracking last week.

A plurality believe Trump and Republicans in Congress have the power to end the shutdown over Democrats in Congress, though a third say both have equal power to end it. When forced to choose between Trump and Republicans or Democrats, a majority say Trump and Republicans have the power to end it (51 percent – 21 percent).

Asked who is trying to keep the government open vs. shut it down, more cast blame on Trump and Republicans in Congress than on Democrats in Congress. Slightly more say Democrats are trying to keep the government open (+2), while more say Republicans in Congress (-7) and Trump are trying to keep it shut (-11). While this is a marginal shift from last week, Americans are more likely now than three weeks ago to say Republicans in Congress and Trump have tried to shut the government down.

Yet both parties’ motivation for a shut down are viewed negatively. By 3 points, Americans have a negative view of what Democrats in Congress are fighting for in the shutdown. Favorable views are dominated by Democrats’ position on health care.

By 7 points, Americans have a negative view of what Republicans in Congress are fighting for. Those views are also dominated by health care – specifically cuts.

Donald Trump fares worse than either party in Congress on this question. By a 12-point margin, half (48 percent) have a negative view of what Donald Trump is fighting for in the shutdown. Negative views are dominated by “rich,” “power,” and “ health care cuts.”

When asked about priorities, more believe Democrats in Congress are focused on the right things by 7 points (49 percent right things – 42 percent wrong things), while Republicans in Congress are underwater on the same measure by 3 points (45 percent right things – 48 percent wrong things). A plurality of independents think both Democrats and Republicans are focused on the wrong things.

Of Everything Going On Right Now, Health Care Is Top Concern

Among a list of things Americans might be concerned about, they are most concerned about health care costs rising and Americans losing health care coverage if Congress does nothing to prevent it. This concern is shared by majorities across party lines, including 60 percent of Republicans.

At a time when Democrats are somewhat less trusted than Republicans on a variety of traits, Democrats remain trusted on health care by 15 points.

More say Trump and Republicans should compromise with Democrats than the reverse. By 28 points (57 percent – 29 percent) Americans say Trump and Republicans should compromise with Democrats in Congress. But just by 10 points do Americans say Democrats should compromise with Trump and Republicans.

Asked whether Democrats in Congress should compromise to end the shutdown or hold to their principles, Americans say Democrats should compromise by 10 points.

Democrats should compromise with Trump and Republicans to end the shutdown, even if that means giving up on some of their principles.

Democrats should hold their ground on their principles, even if it means that the government shutdown continues.

The Toll on Trump

As the shutdown continues, President Trump’s overall approval rating (-12) and economic job approval (-15) remain underwater, nearly identical to where his ratings were two weeks ago.

Economic sentiment also remains consistently negative, with 59 percent feeling uneasy about their personal financial situation and 68 percent rating the economy negatively.

Poll: Government Shutdown

This Navigator Research report covers the most concerning consequences of the government shutdown and how to talk about health care costs in relation to the budget.

Blame and Awareness

Reminder: our latest polling found Americans blame Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress over Democrats for the government shutdown by a 10-point margin. News of the shutdown continues to break through, as 74 percent say they have heard “some” or “a lot” about it.

Shutdown Consequences

50 percent of Americans are concerned about the potential harm the government shutdown could inflict on the economy, potentially costing billions of dollars each week and increasing unemployment. Of the shutdown impacts that have already happened, 61 percent are concerned millions did not receive their paychecks on time, including 70 percent of Democrats, 55 percent of Republicans, and 51 percent of independents.

Costs – for health care and for daily goods – are also top-tier shutdown worries. Three quarters are worried about health care costs rising and Americans losing health care coverage (73 percent), including 51 percent who are “extremely” worried. Over two thirds are concerned about tariffs raising costs of everyday goods, including 47 percent who are “extremely” worried.

“A 114% increase in health insurance costs” is the most concerning potential outcome of Republicans in Congress’s budget (76 percent concerning, including 60 percent “extremely” concerning), followed closely by “nearly 5 million Americans losing their health insurance completely” (74 percent concerning, including 60 percent “extremely” concerning).

Not only are health care costs one of the most worrying shutdown consequences, it’s seen as a top reason to keep fighting. Americans–across party lines–overwhelmingly think the government should extend health care tax credits and subsidies, regardless of how it’s framed. Seven in ten say we should extend health care subsidies (75 percent) and extend tax credits for health care (72 percent). This is true for a majority receiving health insurance through the government, like Medicare and Medicaid and the VA, as well as those who have private insurance or are uninsured.

Americans say the most important priorities in the shutdown are stopping health care cuts and increases in health care costs, specifically cuts to Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act (41 percent).

It’s essential the shutdown be explained in terms of an outcome – specifically the widely-held view that health care costs should not go up further. A 62 percent majority say they would view Democrats in Congress more favorably if they are able to reach a deal and restore health care, this includes a majority of independents and shutdown persuadables. Democrats in particular say they would view the party very favorably (54 percent) if this were the result.

The opposite is true if the shutdown ends without restoring health care, as 59 percent of Americans say they would view Democrats in Congress unfavorably if the government were to reopen without any deal.

Poll: Government Shutdown

This Navigator Research report covers awareness of and blame for the government shutdown.

Shutdown News

News of the government shutdown is breaking through, as 74 percent of Americans say they have heard “some” or “a lot” about it.

It also dominates the negative news they’re hearing about Donald Trump, as well as Democrats and Republicans in Congress.

A 42 percent plurality believe the government shutdown will have a negative impact on them personally and even more (70 percent) believe it will have a negative impact on the country.

Shutdown Blame

By a 10-point margin, Americans blame Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress (44 percent – 34 percent) for the government shutdown, similar to our data from last week.

Asked who is trying to keep the government open vs. shut it down, more cast blame on Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress than on Democrats in Congress. By 3 points, Americans say Democrats in Congress are trying to keep the government open. By contrast, Americans say Republicans in Congress are trying to shut the government down by 7 points. By 9 points, they say Donald Trump has tried to shut the government down. This is a marginal shift from last week with Republicans in Congress bearing more blame in this week’s tracking.

By 4 points, Americans have a positive view of what Democrats in Congress are fighting for in the shutdown. Favorable views of Democrats are dominated by their position on health care.

By 5 points, Americans have a negative view of what Republicans in Congress are fighting for. Those views are dominated by health care cuts.

Donald Trump fares worse than either party in Congress on this question. By an 11-point margin, half (49 percent) of Americans have a negative view of what Donald Trump is fighting for in the shutdown. Negative views are dominated by “power” and “ health care cuts.”

As a result, more believe Democrats in Congress are focused on the right things (50 percent right things – 42 percent wrong things) while Republicans in Congress are underwater on the same measure (47 percent right things – 48 percent wrong things). A plurality of independents think both Democrats and Republicans are focused on the wrong things.

Americans Want Compromise, But Not on Health Care

Health care costs and Americans losing health care coverage tops Americans’ list of concerns, eclipsing even tariffs and political violence.

At a time when Democrats are somewhat less trusted than Republicans on a variety of traits, Democrats remain trusted on health care by 13 points.

Americans continue to believe Trump and Republicans should compromise with Democrats by wide margins. By 30 points (59 percent – 29 percent) Americans say Trump and Republicans should compromise with Democrats in Congress. By half that margin (15 points) Americans say Democrats in Congress should compromise with Trump and Republicans.

Americans want compromise, but not on health care. Asked whether Democrats in Congress should compromise to end the shutdown or hold to their principles, Americans say Democrats should compromise by 15 points.

Democrats should compromise with Trump and Republicans to end the shutdown, even if that means giving up on some of their principles

Democrats should hold their ground on their principles, even if it means that the government shutdown continues.

However, when asked whether Democrats should compromise, even if it means health care costs going up, Americans say do not compromise by 2 points, including by 34 points among independents. This represents a 17 point shift among all Americans when health care is added to the question and a 44-point shift among independents.

Democrats should compromise with Trump and Republicans to end the shutdown, even if that means giving up on some of their principles on keeping health care costs from going up.

Democrats should hold their ground to make sure that health care isn’t taken away and that costs don’t go up any more than they already have, even if it means that the government shutdown continues

The Toll on Trump

As the shutdown continues, President Trump’s overall approval rating (-10) and economic job approval (-12) remain underwater. Trump’s approval on both metrics remain identical to polling from last month.

At the same time, there has been a slight uptick in those hearing positive news about Trump (from 43 percent to 49 percent), specifically about the Israel-Gaza peace deal.

Poll: Shutdown

This Navigator Research report covers the latest on how to talk about the shutdown fight.

Shutdown Context: Republicans Start With More Culpability

As a reminder: Americans start with the perception that Republicans bear more blame in the current shutdown debate. By a 13-point margin, Americans blame Republicans more for the current government shutdown (45 percent Trump and Republicans in Congress – 32 percent Democrats in Congress). Effective messaging increases this perception.

Who: Trump and Republicans

When asked who has tried to keep the government open and who has tried to shut the government down, both parties in Congress perform fairly equally. By a 3-point margin, Americans believe that Democrats in Congress have tried to keep the government open. By a 2-point margin, they believe that Republicans in Congress have tried to shut it down. Independents rate each party about evenly. However, by 8 points, Americans say Donald Trump has tried to shut the government down. As a result, effective messaging should tie the shutdown to Trump.

What: Health Care

Health care cuts and higher health costs are the most concerning on Trump and Republicans’ approach to the shutdown.

Trump and Republicans in Congress are using a government shutdown to try to force through their budget which includes massive cuts to programs like Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act. This budget will double health care costs for millions of Americans and kick millions off of their health care – all to pay for Republicans’ massive new tax breaks for the rich and big corporations (47 percent find this extremely concerning, 62 percent say it is concerning overall); and,

Trump and Republicans in Congress are using a government shutdown to try to force through their budget which includes massive cuts to programs like Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act. This budget will double health care costs for millions of Americans and kick millions off of their health care (46 percent find this extremely concerning, 59 percent say it is concerning overall).

Importantly, health care message framing dramatically shifts the context of the shutdown for Americans.

Why? To Pay for Tax Breaks for the Wealthy

The most effective attacks against Republicans in Congress emphasize that Trump and Republicans in Congress refuse to compromise on health care costs so that they can pay for tax breaks for the wealthy.

Trump and Republicans in Congress are to blame for the shutdown because they refuse to compromise and won’t pass a budget unless it takes away health care to pay for tax breaks for the wealthy. After they already cut Medicaid, they’re now trying to take away the tax credits millions use to pay for health care.

Trump and Republicans in Congress are using a government shutdown to try to force through their budget which includes massive cuts to programs like Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act. This budget will double health care costs for millions of Americans and kick millions off of their health care – all to pay for Republicans’ massive new tax breaks for the rich and big corporations.

As our MAHA research shows, the current health care system is already expensive and inaccessible for people. Raising costs will add to the existing problems.

Trump and Republicans’ budget would more than double health care costs for 22 million Americans. Democrats say health care costs have already been skyrocketing, and so they are doing everything they can to stop health care costs from rising even more, at a time when tariffs are already driving up costs.

Why They Are Responsible

Finally, it’s critical to remind Americans that Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress are fully in charge of the government. By a 16-point margin, Americans believe that Donald Trump and Republicans are responsible for the shutdown because they are fully in charge of the government, compared to Democrats who refuse to compromise. Independents believe this by a 30-point margin.

The Result: Republicans Even More to Blame

After messaging on both sides, Americans move from blaming Donald Trump and Republicans by 13 points to blaming them for the shutdown by 17 points.