Poll: Medicaid

This Navigator Research report covers Americans’ views of Medicaid cuts in the Republican tax bill.

Medicaid remains deeply — and increasingly popular. An overwhelming and bipartisan majority — 79 percent — are favorable toward Medicaid. In the last month, Medicaid’s favorability has increased across all parties in Navigator tracking.

Medicaid is not just popular, it is essential to how Americans evaluate their support for elected officials. We asked: “Please indicate whether or not you could support an elected official who voted to cut Medicaid, as long as you agreed with the elected official on most other things.”

The results for Republicans in Congress, who just voted to cut Medicaid, are staggering: 71 percent of respondents say they could not support such an official, including 51 percent of Republicans and 72 percent of independents. Among non-MAGA Republicans, 57 percent said they could not support an elected official who voted to cut Medicaid.

Democrats enjoy a trust advantage on Medicaid and healthcare-related issues across the board. Among independents, Democrats have a 30-point trust advantage on Medicaid. On healthcare broadly, Democrats have a 29-point trust advantage among independents.

Critically, majorities trust Democrats more than Republicans to tell the truth on Medicaid. In the disrupted media environment, where Americans struggle to judge which source is providing them accurate facts, truth is a valuable currency. Both active and passive news consumers (those who say the news comes to them) trust Democrats more to tell the truth about Medicaid. Across all income levels, Americans trust Democrats more than Republicans to tell the truth on this issue. By a 33-point margin (49-16) independents say they trust Democrats more than Republicans to tell the truth about Medicaid.

Medicaid cuts are no longer a theoretical threat for Americans. Two thirds (63 percent) believe it is likely that President Trump and Republicans in Congress will cut Medicaid, up from 57 percent in March. This includes 63 percent of independents and 47 percent of Republicans. Among Republicans who do not identify as MAGA, 54 percent say it is likely.

Moreover, Americans are not buying the notion that Congress can cut $800 billion from Medicaid solely by eliminating waste, fraud, and abuse or without kicking people off of Medicaid. By a 13-point margin (51-38), Americans say it’s not possible.

When it comes to Medicaid cuts, Americans are most opposed to changing eligibility rules, cutting benefits, and putting up barriers to make it harder for people to get their benefits.

Advocates for Medicaid have a clear center: more than 10 million Americans could lose their health care coverage, including hundreds of thousands of children.

This argument is made even stronger when Americans learn that Medicaid is being cut even as the wealthy and large corporations are getting big tax breaks.

Nonetheless, this survey reveals a real disconnect for progressives in this moment:

• Republican favorability remains remarkably steady, even as awareness of the unpopular Republican tax bill has increased.
• The Republican argument on work requirements is compelling to many Americans: they believe there’s a way to protect healthcare while cracking down on waste and abuse.
• Previous Navigator surveys and focus groups have found that Americans have a deeply held belief that the government is wasteful. Republicans are tapping into that belief to frame their push for work requirements as a form of benevolent reform — and it’s working.

RECOMMENDATIONS:

This survey, and our prior battleground survey reveals a path for progressives:

• Navigator’s June battleground survey finds a net 36-point advantage when work requirements are framed as taking away health coverage from those who do not meet a work requirement versus imposing work requirements in order to receive Medicaid.
• This survey finds that progressives are at a disadvantage when the debate is about work requirements. Instead, a stronger argument focuses on who is hurt by the cuts.
• This survey reveals a clear center: Medicaid is about looking out for middle class and working people and making life more affordable for Americans.

If progressives are directly engaged in a challenge about work requirements, they should:

1. Reframe work requirements as taking Medicaid away from those who do not meet work requirements.
2. Talk about who suffers from Medicaid cuts: millions of sick children and seniors — including more than half of people receiving long-term care or are in nursing homes.
3. Tell the stories of people whose medical care and lives are at stake.
4. Point out that the same bill that eliminates essential medical care from those who can least afford it also includes tax breaks for the wealthiest individuals and corporations.