Poll: Trump’s Plans for a Second Term
This Navigator Research report contains polling data on perceptions of Donald Trump’s comments on the recent TIME Magazine article detailing actions he would take if he were to serve a second term, including levels of concern for the comments and the share who expect him to follow through on the actions he described.
At least three in five expect Trump to follow through on the things he said he would do in the TIME Magazine interview.
More than three in five Americans find a number of former President Trump’s statements in his recent TIME Magazine article concerning, and similar or greater shares expect Trump to follow through on his comments in a second term. The most concerning statements include that Trump “would allow states to monitor women’s pregnancies in order to prosecute women who violate abortion bans, saying ‘states are going to make that decision” (68 percent found this concerning, including 49 percent who find the comment “very” concerning). Moreover, nearly three in five Americans expect Donald Trump to follow through on allowing states to monitor women’s pregnancies (59 percent), including a majority of independents (55 percent) and nearly three in four women (73 percent). Other concerning comments that Trump made in the article include:
- Donald Trump said he may fire federal prosecutors if they refuse to carry out his order to prosecute someone (64 percent concerning, and 64 percent expect him to follow through on this statement);
- Donald Trump called for the “termination of all rules, regulations and articles, even those found in the Constitution” (64 percent concerning, and 51 percent expect him to follow through on this statement);
- Donald Trump has called those who were convicted of federal offenses for storming the U.S. Capitol on January 6th 2021, including for assaulting police officers, “hostages” and “unbelievable patriots” and said he would consider pardoning every one of them (63 percent concerning, and 71 percent expect him to follow through on this statement); and,
- Donald Trump said he would encourage Russia to “do whatever the hell they want” to any NATO member country that he thought was not spending enough on defense (62 percent concerning, and 55 percent expect to follow through on this statement).
Three in five continue to believe Trump committed a crime while president.
Nearly three in five Americans continue to believe Trump committed a crime during his presidency, though a declining share say that he will be convicted of any of the crimes he is accused of. By 22 points, most Americans believe that Trump committed a crime while president (57 percent committed a crime – 35 percent did not commit a crime), including nine in ten Democrats (89 percent), a majority of independents (54 percent), one in three non-MAGA Republicans (36 percent), and one in four Republicans overall (24 percent). However, only one in three Americans say that he will be convicted of the crimes of which is accused (net -11; 36 percent will be convicted – 47 percent will not be convicted), which has declined a net 13 points since September 2023 (net +2; 42 percent will be convicted – 40 percent will not be convicted).
- The belief he will not be convicted is primarily felt by Republicans (net -40; 21 percent will be convicted – 61 percent will not be convicted), up a net 10 points since September.
Congressional Republicans remain underwater in their job approval.
Only one in three Americans approve of how Republicans in Congress are handling their jobs (33 percent approved – 61 percent disapprove). Approval is driven by three in five Republicans (61 percent, though 34 percent disapprove of their job handling) compared to just one in five independents (21 percent) and only one in ten Democrats (10 percent).
- The primary reasons for why Republicans in Congress are earning such high disapproval ratings include that they are focused on their own agenda and not the issues that matter to people’s lives (61 percent), followed distantly by the belief that they are too stubborn and hyper-partisan and won’t work with Democrats enough on bipartisan compromises (40 percent).
Focus Group Report: LGBTQ+ Americans and Soft Partisans on the State of LGBTQ+ Freedoms and Attacks on the Community
Focus groups among Americans identifying as part of the LGBTQ+ community on the state of LGBTQ+ rights in the country, and how participants feel about legislation and government officials targeting members of the LGBTQ+ community.
A Majority of Battleground Constituents Support Congress Taking Action to Protect Access to Contraception and Abortion
Polling data on access to contraception and abortion at the national level, including constituents’ beliefs on the future of abortion restrictions.
Americans Say the Cost of Living and Housing Affordability Are Getting Worse Both Locally and Nationally
Polling data on perceptions of issues facing the United States both locally and nationally, including the cost of living and housing.
About The Study
Global Strategy Group conducted a public opinion survey among a sample of 1,000 registered voters from May 9-May 12, 2024. 100 additional interviews were conducted among Hispanic voters. 72 additional interviews were conducted among Asian American and Pacific Islander voters. 100 additional interviews were conducted among African American voters. 100 additional interviews were conducted among independent voters. The survey was conducted online, recruiting respondents from an opt-in online panel vendor. Respondents were verified against a voter file and special care was taken to ensure the demographic composition of our sample matched that of the national registered voter population across a variety of demographic variables.
