Meet The Pocketbook Pessimists

Poll: Pocketbook Pessimists

This Navigator Research report covers Americans who rate the economy negatively or are unsure but don’t yet blame Trump and Republicans in Congress.

Pocketbook Pessimists

In a survey Navigator research conducted earlier this month, a group of nearly one-third of Americans said they are either unsure or pessimistic about the economy (31%), but they do not yet blame President Trump and Republicans in Congress for costs rising.

This group, which Navigator is referring to as “pocketbook pessimists,” leans independent (52% of independents fit into this category) and 37% are between the ages of 18 and 44.

Chart from Navigator Research, titled: A Third Are Unsure on the Economy or Believe the Economy Is Bad, But Don’t Yet Blame Trump and GOP for Costs Rising

This group is less likely to say politics are important to their identity (only 52% said they were, compared to 66% of all voters). Half say they voted for Trump in 2024 (50%), compared with 29% who say they voted for Harris, and 6% who say they voted for somebody else. 17% say they did not vote at all.

Bar chart from Navigator Research, titled: Pocketbook Pessimists Skew More Independent and Are More Likely To Be Non-Voters

Feelings About Trump, Democrats, And The Economy

While pocketbook pessimists are reluctant to blame Trump for their economic pain, they’re still largely negative on him. Trump has an overall net -8 approval with pocketbook pessimists, slightly better than the net -14 approval he has with Americans overall.

Pocketbook pessimists have a net -14 approval of Trump’s handling of the economy and give him an average grade between a C- and a D+ on the economy, about the same grade he got from all Americans.

Bar chart from Navigator Research, titled: Though They’re Not Yet Ready to Blame Trump/GOP on Costs, Trump’s Ratings Are Not Glowing With This Group Either

Tariffs have a net -34 favorability rating among this group, while the Affordable Care Act (ACA) has a net +25 rating among them.

Bar chart from Navigator Research, titled: While These Pocketbook Pessimists Don’t Like Tariffs, They’re Supportive of the ACA

Pocketbook pessimists feel crushed by the economy. 77% say their costs are going up (compared to 72% of Americans overall). Similarly, they are slightly more likely than Americans overall to say the cost of groceries (86% vs. 81%), housing (77% vs. 70%), and utilities (81% vs. 74%) are going up. 70% also say health care costs are rising.

Bar chart from Navigator Research, titled: Pocketbook Pessimists Say the Costs of Groceries, Housing, Health Care, and Utilities Are on the Rise

Pocketbook pessimists blame policies from Trump and Republicans in Congress for rising costs. A majority say they blame Trump’s tariffs for raising their costs (54%), 42% say they blame Republicans’ cuts to SNAP and Medicaid, and 41% say they blame Republicans’ inaction on ACA subsidies for their rising costs.

Bar chart from Navigator Research, titled: The Greatest Wedges With These Americans Against Trump on the Economy Are Tariffs, Medicaid/SNAP Cuts, ACA Subsidies

However, this group doesn’t necessarily trust Democrats more. On many issues including taxes (39%) and inflation and the cost of living (36%), a plurality say they trust neither party on the issue.

Bar chart from Navigator Research, titled: This Group Is Largely Untrusting of Both Parties on the Economy, Though They Lean Towards GOP

Media Habits

Pocketbook pessimists are evenly split between Passive and Active News Consumers. 45% say they turn to social media for news (compared to 40% of Americans overall). 58% say they use TikTok multiple times a day (compared to 52% of all Americans).

Bar chart from Navigator Research, titled: This Group Is More Likely to Get News From Social Media and Use TikTok, Snapchat

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February 12, 2026

Trump’s Priorities Still Seen as Out of Whack

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Americans Continue To Sour On ICE

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January 27, 2026

ICE’s Aggression is Fracturing Republicans

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ICE’s Aggression is Fracturing Republicans

Poll: ICE

This Navigator Research report covers shifting public sentiment on immigration, Trump’s handling of immigration and deportations, and the deployment of ICE following the shooting of Renee Good in Minnesota.

Favorability and Awareness of ICE

Americans’ perception of Immigration and Customs Enforcement, or ICE, has deteriorated over the past month – going from a favorability rating of net -8 in June to net -14 in December to net -20 in January, following the shooting of Renee Good. The story of Renee Good’s shooting broke through to overwhelming majorities (78% heard a lot/some), even among passive news consumers, or those who say news comes to them (65% heard a lot/some).

Favorability of ICE has taken an even sharper turn among those who have heard the news of the shooting of Renee Good compared to those who have heard less about the news (have heard the news: 58% unfavorable, have not heard the news: 49% unfavorable). Other groups who have seen stark drop offs in ICE’s favorability are Hispanic Americans (from net -23 in June, to net -30 in December, to now net -41), those living in the Midwest (from net -2 in June, to net -13 in December, to now net -22), and moderates (from net -22 in June, to net -31 in December, to now net -39).

Bar chart from Navigator Research, titled: Americans' View of ICE Are in Decline

ICE’s Aggression and Fractures within Republican Party

Majorities believe ICE has been too aggressive in their actions (59% too aggressive – 24% balanced – 12% not aggressive enough). In June 2025, amid ongoing protests against ICE in Los Angeles, Navigator found that 52% believed Trump’s deportation efforts had gone too far and 31% thought they struck the right balance.

Republicans have begun to fracture on the issue of ICE, with more Republican women now saying ICE has been too aggressive (35% too aggressive – 33% struck the right balance – 20% not aggressive enough). Similarly, a majority of Catholic Americans, a slightly Republican-leaning group (46% lean Republican – 44% lean Democrat), believe ICE has been too aggressive in their actions (59% too aggressive – 27% struck the right balance – 13% not aggressive enough).

Bar chart from Navigator Research: Americans Overall Are Concerned About ICE Aggression

From Focus Groups

Navigator held focus groups days after an ICE officer shot and killed Renee Good in Minneapolis. ICE enforcement and the shooting are top of mind for many, especially for Latino Americans. Others say raids and deportations are hitting close to home.

  • “It’s just been kind of disgusting what happens because of the domino effect of ICE getting $4 billion jumping up there, how much they have now to spend and use.” – AZ Hispanic man
  • “He created his own Gestapo and you know how it is. He’s going after Hispanics now, but when he gets done with Hispanics, you know who’s next.” – NC Hispanic man
  • “Where are the checks and balances? It just seems like the individuals that are within ICE and all this, there’s just no boundaries.” – MI Black man
Slide featuring quotes from Navigator Research's focus groups, titled: Several Liken Trump’s Actions, And ICE Specifically, To That Of A Hitler-Style Dictator

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February 12, 2026

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February 5, 2026

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February 4, 2026

Americans Continue To Sour On ICE

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January 29, 2026

Meet The Pocketbook Pessimists

This Navigator Research report covers Americans who rate the economy negatively or are unsure but don’t yet blame Trump and Republicans in Congress.

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One Year In: Americans Give Trump a C- Grade

Poll: Trump’s First Year in Office

This Navigator Research report covers the latest views of President Trump’s first year in office, including how Americans think his policies have impacted the country, and how they would rate his performance as President.

Americans Give Trump a C- Average

Trump gave his economy an “A+++++,” but Americans do not agree. They give Trump a C- average a year into his second term and give his economy the same grade. When rating Trump’s first year in office, over one-third of people give Trump an “F” (36%), including 37% of independents. Averaging out his grades, Trump scores a 1.78 GPA overall with Americans. Trump’s economy gets a 1.88 GPA, or C- average.

Bar chart from Navigator Research, titled: Trump’s Grade a Year Into His Second Term Sits at a C- Average

Majorities continue to disapprove of how President Trump handles the economy, inflation, and the presidency overall. 56% disapprove of both his handling of the economy and the presidency overall, while 58% disapprove of his handling of inflation and the cost of living. Among those disapproving of his handling of inflation are 44% of non-MAGA Republicans and 66% of independents.

Political Division and Costs Worse Under Trump

Nearly two-thirds believe political division has gotten worse during the first year of President Trump’s second term (65%), including 47% who say it has gotten “a lot” worse. Majorities also say the cost of living and health care costs have gotten worse under Trump (62% and 60%, respectively). When it comes to non-cost related metrics, 56% believe the functioning of our democracy has deteriorated and 54% say the lives of working people have gotten worse, including 50% of middle class Americans.

Bar chart from Navigator Research, titled: Americans See a Lot Getting Worse Under Trump – With Division, Costs, and the Economy Topping the List

Majorities Link Cost Increases to Trump Policies

Eight in ten say both their cost of living generally and their grocery costs have increased as a result of Trump’s second term policies (80% and 79%, respectively). Americans are more likely to say their specific costs and costs generally have increased as a result of Trump’s policies rather than seeing cuts to programs as a result of his economic policies. Half believe Medicaid has been cut as a result of Trump’s actions (50%), and 42% believe Social Security and Medicare have been cut.

Utility costs (69%), housing costs (69%), and health care costs (61%), are all seen as increasing as a result of Trump’s policies.

Bar chart from Navigator Research, titled: Americans Overwhelmingly Feel Their Costs Have Increased Under Trump

Trump’s Tariffs to Blame for Costs

Nearly half say Trump’s tariffs are one of the top two policies they associate most with his second term (48%). Two thirds place it in their top three (64%). After tariffs, the policies most associated with Trump’s second term are: cuts to SNAP and Medicaid (38% top two, 54% top three) and cuts to the federal government via DOGE (29% top two, 43% top three).

One-third rank Trump’s tariffs first in terms of policies that have increased costs (33%), and a majority ranked it in their top three (55%). Cuts to Medicaid and SNAP as well as Trump’s ending of ACA subsidies were also ranked as cost increasing culprits –though not as highly as tariffs (Medicaid/SNAP; 40% top three, ACA; 39% top three).

Scatter plot graph from Navigator Research, titled: Trump’s Tariffs and Cuts to Medicaid and SNAP Are His Economic Legacy This Term and Seen As Driving Up Costs Most

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February 12, 2026

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This Navigator Research report covers the most recent perceptions of the economy.

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This Navigator Research report covers Trump’s handling of immigration and mass deportations as well as messaging guidance on ICE.

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February 4, 2026

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Polling report on the most recent perceptions of ICE following the killings of both Renee Good and Alex Pretti, including tracking of ICE’s favorability, the share who believe Secretary Noem should be impeached and Stephen Miller should be fired, and the reforms to ICE that Americans most support.

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January 29, 2026

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This Navigator Research report covers Americans who rate the economy negatively or are unsure but don’t yet blame Trump and Republicans in Congress.

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Focus Group Report: Working Class Americans and the Affordability Crisis

Focus Groups: Affordability

This Navigator Research report covers focus groups conducted among working class Americans in Senate battleground states on their personal financial situations, their greatest economic concerns, and perceptions of elected officials tackling affordability.

Participants cite feelings of deep economic pain and feelings of helplessness when it comes to their finances, with most seeing the situation as worsening not improving.

“I’m scared. I’m scared. I’m scared of us losing our healthcare, of him not getting the care that he needs, and me not being able to provide for my family, even though I went to school and got a career to do so.” – NH woman, independent

“I think the economy’s going to tank because when we all lose healthcare starting in January, or most of us like me, I’m going to lose it in January, what is that going to do to the economy? People can’t afford to buy anything now. It’s going to just kill it.” – NH woman, weak Democrat

“I find everything is higher priced around here. I find work, but I’m looking for higher paying job and that’s been very discouraging. Unemployment’s up higher than it’s been in four years and I don’t see it getting better.” – MI woman, weak Democrat

The cost of utilities and electricity is widely cited as an economic pain point, though the job market and changes in SNAP also come up as specific economic challenges.

“Right now my biggest stress is getting through this winter with heating and I have a wood fireplace, so I’m up three times a night. So I’m not sleeping. I’m not sleeping. I’m just trying to get through a night or day.” – ME woman, weak Republican

“The price of natural gas is outrageous…Every bill I got, it ate, probably, about maybe 40% of my paycheck and it was crazy. I had to switch [to electric].” – NC man, independent lean Democrat

“I get $64 a month in food stamps. At the beginning of this year, January 25, I had $257 in food stamps every month and every month since consistently, they kept cutting it down, cutting it down, cutting it down to the point where I now get $64 a month in food stamps, which does not buy very much at all.” – NH woman, independent lean Democrat

Many participants say they have developed new strategies to get by, including buy now pay later services like Klarna.

“I buy my groceries with my cash app card so that I can use after pay and break the payments down to three or four payments so that I can actually afford the groceries.” – NH woman, independent lean Democrat

“In order to get dog food recently I had to do a split and four payment type plan and I’ve never had to do that before.” – ME woman, weak Republican

“We have cut our grocery bill in half….You just don’t buy as much and just make do with what you have. There’s more chicken and rice and things that are lower costing than the things that you really want.” – OH woman, weak Democrat

Participants across groups express perceptions of inequity and an economic system that is rigged for the wealthy.

“Honestly, about the last couple of years, it just seems like the rich are richer, the poor or poorer. There’s not a whole lot of middle class around me. Either you can afford things or you can’t….I’m not saying that rich people need to give to less fortunate people, but there has to be some way to even it out. I don’t know the answer, but I don’t think it’s fair.” – MI woman, weak Democrat

“People like Bezos, Elon Musk, Zuckerberg, these people who are billionaires who could solve problems like homelessness and hunger and stuff, they should be taxed more, period.. They should pay their share. It’s not fair.” – NH woman, independent

Trump is seen as out of touch with working class people, with several citing his ballroom project as a proofpoint.

“I blame Trump. He’s greedy, he wants to make money for him and his rich friends. They are throwing Americans aside, cutting, SNAP….Everything’s gone to the wayside so that the rich can get richer.” – NH woman, weak Democrat

“How about a ballroom?….A billion dollars. How much was it? $5 billion, $3 billion or something? Do we really need a ballroom, ladies? Are we going to go to a fucking dance?…They’re all out for themselves. ‘Let’s do the ballroom. Let’s do stuff that don’t need to be done and screw the American people.’” – ME woman, independent

“I see the president building a ballroom when there’s people that can’t feed their families.” – MI woman, weak Democrat

Republican lawmakers as a whole are seen as more focused on the wealthy.

“[Republicans are] definitely not fighting for people like me at all. It’s mostly they’re rich and ultra wealthy. That’s all in their mind. Just look at the huge tax breaks they gave the wealthy, I mean, come on.” – OH man, weak Democrat

“[Republicans approach is] if you have money, we like you. If you don’t have money, fuck you.” – NH woman, independent lean Democrat

Participants believe Democratic lawmakers are well intentioned but ineffective –due to messaging issues and focus on political games.

“I don’t think [Democrats] message well. So the Republicans like to promote themselves as being for the economy or they’re going to be better for the economy. But the bottom line is, they’re not.” – NH woman, weak Democrat

“It feels like [Democrats are for] whatever the Republicans aren’t saying or what they’re against, because it’s always the opposite….It’s for themselves honestly, so they can get re-elected because like I said, there’s no particulars, there’s no exact numbers, there’s no, ‘Oh, we’re going to do this step, this step, this step to get these things done.’” – NC man, independent lean Democrat

“[Democrats are] no longer addressing the middle class. They’re addressing groups of people and not mass.” – NH woman, independent lean Democrat

Participants do not see elected officials as fighting for them, or as having the lived experience to really understand the affordability crisis. Bernie Sanders is the one exception across groups.

“I think nothing’s going to change until our government decides that we’re a priority, that lowering the cost of things is a priority, of giving us affordable health care is a priority, and it doesn’t seem to be a priority right now.” – ME woman, weak Democrat

“I don’t think unless you’ve walked in the shoes of people that are struggling, that are living paycheck to paycheck, that are struggling to pay their bills, that are struggling to feed their children, I just don’t think they understand and are willing to fight for that, because they’ve never been through it.” – OH woman, independent

“I think the only person who [understood what I was going through economically] would be Bernie Sanders, I feel like just talking about stuff like how bad student loans are for the youth and how important universal health care is, I feel like those are two things he is always been consistent about.” –GA man, independent lean Democrat

Across groups of participants, universal health care is seen as solving many economic challenges.

“Cut back on the military spending overnight and everybody could have universal health care.” – NH woman, independent lean Democrat

“I’ve actually said this, I thought this since I was 18, I’m going to die on this hill. Universal health care…I already pay a tax to my insurance company, 20%. I’ll pay 25% if everyone in the country gets to have universal health care, everyone else does it.” – MI man, independent

“Universal health care. It’s not necessarily perfect health care, but health care for everyone.” – ME woman, weak Democrat

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