Government Shutdown Week 2: A Guide for Advocates

Poll: Government Shutdown

This Navigator Research report covers awareness of and blame for the government shutdown.

Shutdown News

News of the government shutdown is breaking through, as 74 percent of Americans say they have heard “some” or “a lot” about it.

Bar charts from Navigator Research. Title: Awareness Remains High About the Government Shutdown

It also dominates the negative news they’re hearing about Donald Trump, as well as Democrats and Republicans in Congress.

Word clouds from Navigator Research. Title: On Congress, the Conversation Remains on Shutdown; for Trump, Mix of Other Negatives, Plus Middle East on Positives

A 42 percent plurality believe the government shutdown will have a negative impact on them personally and even more (70 percent) believe it will have a negative impact on the country.

Bar charts from Navigator Research. Title: As the Shutdown Persists, a Majority Sees It Negatively Impacting the Country; Fewer Say the Same on Personal Impacts

Shutdown Blame

By a 10-point margin, Americans blame Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress (44 percent – 34 percent) for the government shutdown, similar to our data from last week.

Bar charts from Navigator Research. Title: Americans Continue to Blame the GOP More for the Shutdown Than Democrats – Though the Gap Has Narrowed Slightly

Asked who is trying to keep the government open vs. shut it down, more cast blame on Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress than on Democrats in Congress. By 3 points, Americans say Democrats in Congress are trying to keep the government open. By contrast, Americans say Republicans in Congress are trying to shut the government down by 7 points. By 9 points, they say Donald Trump has tried to shut the government down. This is a marginal shift from last week with Republicans in Congress bearing more blame in this week’s tracking.

Bar charts from Navigator Research. Title: Fewer Now See Trump/GOP Trying to Keep Government Open; a Slim Plurality Says Democrats Are Trying to Keep It Open

By 4 points, Americans have a positive view of what Democrats in Congress are fighting for in the shutdown. Favorable views of Democrats are dominated by their position on health care.

Bar chart and word cloud from Navigator Research. Title: More Have a Positive Impression of What Democrats Are Fighting for Than GOP/Trump, Bolstered by Their Position on Health Care

By 5 points, Americans have a negative view of what Republicans in Congress are fighting for. Those views are dominated by health care cuts.

Donald Trump fares worse than either party in Congress on this question. By an 11-point margin, half (49 percent) of Americans have a negative view of what Donald Trump is fighting for in the shutdown. Negative views are dominated by “power” and “ health care cuts.”

Word clouds from Navigator Research. Title: Health Care Dominates the Conversation Around Both Parties in Congress on the Shutdown; on Trump, Power, Cuts, Control

As a result, more believe Democrats in Congress are focused on the right things (50 percent right things – 42 percent wrong things) while Republicans in Congress are underwater on the same measure (47 percent right things – 48 percent wrong things). A plurality of independents think both Democrats and Republicans are focused on the wrong things.

Bar charts from Navigator Research. Title: Americans Continue to Say Democrats Are More Focused on the Right Things Than the GOP

Americans Want Compromise, But Not on Health Care

Health care costs and Americans losing health care coverage tops Americans’ list of concerns, eclipsing even tariffs and political violence.

Bar charts from Navigator Research. Title: Shutdown Impacts Are More Worrying Than the Shutdown Itself

At a time when Democrats are somewhat less trusted than Republicans on a variety of traits, Democrats remain trusted on health care by 13 points.

Bar charts from Navigator Research. Title: While Democrats Hold Their Advantage on Health Care, They Are Tied or at a Deficit to GOP on Other Shutdown Issues

Americans continue to believe Trump and Republicans should compromise with Democrats by wide margins. By 30 points (59 percent – 29 percent) Americans say Trump and Republicans should compromise with Democrats in Congress. By half that margin (15 points) Americans say Democrats in Congress should compromise with Trump and Republicans.

Bar charts from Navigator Research. Title: Americans Want to See Compromise to End the Shutdown, Though More Want Republicans to Compromise than Democrats

Americans want compromise, but not on health care. Asked whether Democrats in Congress should compromise to end the shutdown or hold to their principles, Americans say Democrats should compromise by 15 points.

Democrats should compromise with Trump and Republicans to end the shutdown, even if that means giving up on some of their principles

Democrats should hold their ground on their principles, even if it means that the government shutdown continues.

However, when asked whether Democrats should compromise, even if it means health care costs going up, Americans say do not compromise by 2 points, including by 34 points among independents. This represents a 17 point shift among all Americans when health care is added to the question and a 44-point shift among independents.

Democrats should compromise with Trump and Republicans to end the shutdown, even if that means giving up on some of their principles on keeping health care costs from going up.

Democrats should hold their ground to make sure that health care isn’t taken away and that costs don’t go up any more than they already have, even if it means that the government shutdown continues

Bar charts from Navigator Research. Title: Support for Democrats Holding Their Ground Over Compromising Is Still Bolstered By a Health Care Frame

The Toll on Trump

As the shutdown continues, President Trump’s overall approval rating (-10) and economic job approval (-12) remain underwater. Trump’s approval on both metrics remain identical to polling from last month.

Bar charts from Navigator Research. Title: Trump’s Overall Approval Rating Remains Unchanged, and His Economic Approval Rating Is Also Still in the Red

At the same time, there has been a slight uptick in those hearing positive news about Trump (from 43 percent to 49 percent), specifically about the Israel-Gaza peace deal.

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Americans want the shutdown to end, but not if it means leaving millions without health care

Poll: Shutdown

This Navigator Research report covers the latest on how to talk about the shutdown fight.

Shutdown Context: Republicans Start With More Culpability

As a reminder: Americans start with the perception that Republicans bear more blame in the current shutdown debate. By a 13-point margin, Americans blame Republicans more for the current government shutdown (45 percent Trump and Republicans in Congress – 32 percent Democrats in Congress). Effective messaging increases this perception.

Bar charts from Navigator Research. Title: Building the Case Against Republicans on the Shutdown

Who: Trump and Republicans

When asked who has tried to keep the government open and who has tried to shut the government down, both parties in Congress perform fairly equally. By a 3-point margin, Americans believe that Democrats in Congress have tried to keep the government open. By a 2-point margin, they believe that Republicans in Congress have tried to shut it down. Independents rate each party about evenly. However, by 8 points, Americans say Donald Trump has tried to shut the government down. As a result, effective messaging should tie the shutdown to Trump.

Bar chart from Navigator Research. Title: Americans Divided on Who Is Trying to Keep the Government Open; Democrats Seen Doing Slightly More to Do So Than GOP

What: Health Care

Health care cuts and higher health costs are the most concerning on Trump and Republicans’ approach to the shutdown.

Trump and Republicans in Congress are using a government shutdown to try to force through their budget which includes massive cuts to programs like Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act. This budget will double health care costs for millions of Americans and kick millions off of their health care – all to pay for Republicans’ massive new tax breaks for the rich and big corporations (47 percent find this extremely concerning, 62 percent say it is concerning overall); and,

Trump and Republicans in Congress are using a government shutdown to try to force through their budget which includes massive cuts to programs like Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act. This budget will double health care costs for millions of Americans and kick millions off of their health care (46 percent find this extremely concerning, 59 percent say it is concerning overall).

Importantly, health care message framing dramatically shifts the context of the shutdown for Americans.

Bar charts from Navigator Research. Title: Health Care Cuts and Higher Health Care Costs Are Most Concerning on Trump and GOP Approach to Shutdown

Why? To Pay for Tax Breaks for the Wealthy

The most effective attacks against Republicans in Congress emphasize that Trump and Republicans in Congress refuse to compromise on health care costs so that they can pay for tax breaks for the wealthy.

Trump and Republicans in Congress are to blame for the shutdown because they refuse to compromise and won’t pass a budget unless it takes away health care to pay for tax breaks for the wealthy. After they already cut Medicaid, they’re now trying to take away the tax credits millions use to pay for health care.

Trump and Republicans in Congress are using a government shutdown to try to force through their budget which includes massive cuts to programs like Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act. This budget will double health care costs for millions of Americans and kick millions off of their health care – all to pay for Republicans’ massive new tax breaks for the rich and big corporations.

Bar charts from Navigator Research. Title: Arguments Blaming GOP for Shutdown Are Persuasive, Whether Focused on GOP Majority or Their Plans to Cut Health Care

As our MAHA research shows, the current health care system is already expensive and inaccessible for people. Raising costs will add to the existing problems.

Trump and Republicans’ budget would more than double health care costs for 22 million Americans. Democrats say health care costs have already been skyrocketing, and so they are doing everything they can to stop health care costs from rising even more, at a time when tariffs are already driving up costs.

Why They Are Responsible

Finally, it’s critical to remind Americans that Donald Trump and Republicans in Congress are fully in charge of the government. By a 16-point margin, Americans believe that Donald Trump and Republicans are responsible for the shutdown because they are fully in charge of the government, compared to Democrats who refuse to compromise. Independents believe this by a 30-point margin.

Bar charts from Navigator Research. Title: Highlighting Democrats’ Efforts to Protect Health Care Are Compelling Against GOP Spending Criticisms

The Result: Republicans Even More to Blame

After messaging on both sides, Americans move from blaming Donald Trump and Republicans by 13 points to blaming them for the shutdown by 17 points.

Bar charts from Navigator Research. Title: Highlighting Republicans’ Chaos & Broad Spending Cuts Is Less Persuasive Than Direct, Focused Hits on Health Care

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Focus Group Report: MAHA Curious

FOCUS GROUPS: MAHA

This Navigator Research report covers focus groups conducted among “MAHA-Curious” Americans* on the state of the health and wellness in the country today, including where they look to for information and how they assess the “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) movement.

Last month, we explored Americans’ views of health and wellness in the country and the MAHA movement. In assessing trusted sources, treatment type, and the government’s role in health, we segmented the electorate into institutionalists, MAHA-loyalists, and finally the “MAHA Curious”—those who are somewhat skeptical of our health system but not completely against institutions and traditional medicine. We explore how this cohort is thinking about MAHA and its goals in focus groups.

Focus group quotes from Navigator Research. Title: MAHA Curious Swing Tend Younger, Non-College, Suburban, 2024 Third-Party/Non-Voters, Politically Disengaged

MAHA curious participants were deeply pessimistic about the state of health care in the country today, mainly due to exorbitant and unpredictable costs.

“I don’t think anything is going well as far as health care from my personal experience. Just even the emergency room, long waits, you get a diagnosis, but it’s just a quick fix. The long wait time to see doctors, the copays, it’s a lot.” – Florida woman, independent

“It’s very expensive. If I get an injury, the first thing I’m thinking is do not call me the ambulance. I don’t got money to pay for that, so it’s very expensive.” – Maryland man, independent lean Democrat

Focus group quotes from Navigator Research. Title: Views On Health Care Are Pessimistic, Centering On Costs

The problems are less related to the quality of care, and more about access and finding the right care.

“I think it’s broken because, like everyone else said, it’s extremely expensive, it’s hard to actually get care… It can take forever to actually get an appointment, even if they have the type of doctor that you need to see, if it’s a specialist.” – California woman, independent lean Democrat

“The doctors are usually very well here. It’s just the coverage and sometimes you’ll get a denial and you have to go back for another doctor’s visit just to get the right paperwork. Or they deem it unnecessary and it’s actually very necessary. You’re trying to take care of your health and be proactive.” – Florida woman, independent

Focus group quotes from Navigator Research. Title: Many Feel Doctors And Medical Professional Largely Do A Good Job

As a result, many participants turn to social media, Google, and AI for questions related to health and wellness.

“I normally go to the Health MD or I go to the orgs, like the ones that is verified… Like professionalized sources that is backed up with statistics and scientific information.” – Mississippi woman, weak Democrat

“I usually follow holistic accounts on TikTok and creators. And if I have a question, I will reference ChatGPT.” – Florida woman, independent

“I have a lot of YouTube subscriptions, so there’s a lot of people I watch on YouTube. I read Reddit a lot, so Reddit, and then I read medical journals, stuff like that.” – Illinois man, weak Democrat

“My mom and dad. They’re my go-tos, but yeah, ChatGPT as well has been my go-to.” – Florida man, independent lean Democrat

Focus group quotes from Navigator Research. Title: That Said, Most Are Searching Online For Alternative Answers To Their Health Questions And Challenges

These sources can sometimes lead participants to bring questions to doctors or change their care.

“I also get a lot of my health information from social media, which will lead me to look it up on Google and then if I’m kind of confused with my answers, because sometimes you get yeses and nos back to back and then you’re wondering which one’s correct. So then I’ll take it to my doctor and I’ll be like, ‘What do you think?’ So kind of ends there.” – Pennsylvania woman, weak Democrat

“I actually was thinking that I’ve seen that birth control, the pill can lead to cancer. I saw that in a post and I’m on the pill and I think I had an appointment with my gynecologist not too long after, and I don’t know if I said it directly, but I think it’s encouraged me to want to go off of the pill sooner and maybe go more towards an IUD.” – Louisiana woman, weak Democrat

Focus group quotes from Navigator Research. Title: Most Say They Cross-Reference Online Health Information, And Involve Their Doctors

These participants overwhelmingly believe Americans are less healthy than they were 20 years ago, largely as a result of food.

“Everything has changed, the food has changed, everything has sugar, and it’s just… Yeah, if you cough, you gain weight. It’s too much.” – New York woman, independent

“When you look at trends over time, there are some things that have improved, but across the board, chronic issues or health, lifestyle issues, like diabetes, things like that, have been, like drug deaths, those have been on the rise.” – Wisconsin woman, independent lean Republican

“There’s a clear difference between what’s allowed in our food versus around the world, different countries that they have around not letting certain things into there. So, I think there’s a couple different things contribute to us being less healthy culturally.” – Virginia man, weak Republican

“I don’t feel food is real food anymore. A lot of it is, even in fruits and vegetables, there’s so much pesticides that I don’t think was in there 10 years ago, meats, all that. Also, people who can’t afford to eat fresh fruits and vegetables, they rely on a lot of rice or junk food that’s cheaper but filling at least.” – Florida woman, weak Democrat

Focus group quotes from Navigator Research. Title: Most Feel America Is Less Healthy Than It Used To Be, Mostly Because Of Processed Food

The goal of making America healthy is indisputably positive to these participants, but they do question the MAHA movement’s agenda. RFK Jr. is mostly known and has mixed perceptions.

“When you take those words for their literal meaning, I agree with it. I don’t know about again, but make America healthy or do healthy things, reduce our consumption of unhealthy foods, toxins… I don’t think anybody would be opposed to that.” – California man, weak Republican

“Some of this feels very political. Some of this does not seem very factually scientific based. And I don’t know if I have specific examples as I sit here today, but just kind of seeing some of the stuff that comes out in the media… With RFK and Trump’s support in this… I do question what the true intent of this is. Is it truly to Make America Healthy Again, or are there other ulterior motives at play here?” – Virginia man, weak Republican

“It’s RFK Junior’s I guess campaign to change the way that healthcare works in America. A lot of it is trying to move away from, let’s be honest, proven remedies towards unproven holistic. There’s some fad diet stuff in there as well that’s becoming more popular and I think the most recent result of the campaign was the declaration that there is a linkage between Tylenol taken during pregnancy and autism, there’s multiple studies on that.” – Wisconsin woman, independent lean Republican

“I just find it a little bit touch and go with what he wants to do in terms of attending to pollution….[RFK] took his family to go walking in and swimming in a creek. And it was some of the dirtiest water ever that no one would ever touch in Washington, D.C. So I just think, ‘okay, is there really a leg to stand on when it comes to all of this pollution?’” – FL man, independent lean Democrat

Focus group quotes from Navigator Research. Title: “MAHA” Is Mostly, But Not Universally, Known, And Largely Defined By Perceptions Around Food, Vaccines, And Tylenol
Focus group quotes from Navigator Research. Title: Several Worry MAHA Is “Too Political,” Citing Ties To Trump And MAGA

MAHA’s anti-vaccine sentiment alarms some, but importantly, they want to be able to make those decisions for themselves and their families.

“When I hear Make America Healthy Again, I also think about what they’re saying about vaccines at the moment. And I know that some vaccines are created to make America healthy, to diminish chicken pox, and measles, and polio, and things like that. I do think everybody should have a choice on what to put in their body. I’m big on that. What you want to put in your body is your choice and for your child, as well. And maybe vaccines should be spread out, but I don’t know if leading in that way not to do them at all is right either.” – Florida woman, independent

“I think the parents should decide if their kids should have it or not, and then I think that the parents should give it to them. I’m really half-and-half on that.” – Florida woman, weak Republican

“They’re creating a bit, I would say, hesitancy towards vaccines. I don’t think they’ve ever said, ‘Don’t get vaccinated,’ but they’re spreading them out. I think they have some interesting points on certain vaccines maybe, particularly Hep B.” – California man, weak Republican

“I’m a bit worried that if there’s overall lack of societal trust, if we get messaging coming out saying vaccines across the board aren’t safe, vaccines across the board aren’t good, that margin of people who will just not take any vaccines altogether or just not vaccinate their children, we’re going to lose some degree of our herd immunity and become vulnerable to diseases that were almost eradicated like 50 years ago.” – Wisconsin woman, independent lean Republican

Focus group quotes from Navigator Research. Title: Vaccines Are Seen As Far More Good Than Bad, Although Most Support Parental Autonomy

A clear consensus for how to tackle America’s health problems: make foods healthier and more affordable. The recent funding cuts to the health establishment are viewed overwhelmingly negatively.

“One policy that they can do is not make those cuts to the CDC, NIH and federal government institutions like that when it comes to the health and safety of all of us as a whole, that’s number one.” – Florida man, independent lean Democrat

“I think if you had to ask me the single most important thing that I would take away from this is generally what they put in our food and the chemicals that go into it.” – Virginia man, weak Republican

“To make healthy food or organic food cheaper or more affordable across the board.” – Arizona man, weak Democrat

“Policy should be targeted on our food, the food companies, what they put inside it, how it’s made. I think that’s the baseline of our health.” – Maryland man, independent lean Democrat

“Just making sure to take out chemicals in foods that other countries don’t have chemicals in. And just trying to go back to the basics and having natural food.” – Louisiana woman, weak Democrat

“I think an overhaul of the current for-profit insurance system is absolutely necessary.” – Wisconsin woman, independent lean Republican

Focus group quotes from Navigator Research. Title: Making Food Healthier And More Affordable Is A Clear Winner

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Government Shutdown Week 1: A Guide for Advocates

Poll: Government Shutdown

This Navigator Research report covers awareness of and blame for the government shutdown.

Shutdown News

News of the government shutdown has started to break through, as 75 percent of Americans now say they have heard “some” or “a lot” about it. This is a 35-point increase from last month when 40 percent had heard something about a shutdown.

Bar chart from Navigator Research. Title: Nearly Twice as Many Are Hearing About the Shutdown Compared to Share Hearing About a Potential One in September

It also dominates both the positive and negative news they’re hearing about Donald Trump, as well as Democrats and Republicans in Congress.

Half believe a government shutdown will have a negative impact on them personally (50 percent), and even more (68 percent) believe it will have a negative impact on the country.

Bar chart from Navigator Research. Title: Two in Three Say That the Shutdown Will Have a Negative Impact on the Country, Half Say on Themselves

Shutdown Blame

More blame Trump and Republicans than Democrats for the shutdown. A plurality (45 percent) blame Trump and Republicans, compared to fewer who blame Democrats (32 percent); a 13-point margin.

Bar chart from Navigator Research. Title: Americans Blame Trump and Republicans in Congress More Than Democrats for the Current Government Shutdown

A slightly different question shows a similar result. Asked who is trying to keep the government open vs. shut it down, more cast blame on Donald Trump than on either party in Congress. By 8 points, Americans say Donald Trump has tried to shut the government down. By a 2-point margin, they say Republicans in Congress have tried to shut the government down. By contrast, Americans say Democrats are trying to keep the government open by 3 points.

Bar chart from Navigator Research. Title: Americans Divided on Who Is Trying to Keep the Government Open; Democrats Seen Doing Slightly More to Do So Than GOP

At a time when Democrats are somewhat less trusted than Republicans on a variety of traits, ‘handling the shutdown’ is one on which Americans are most evenly divided.

Bar chart from Navigator Research. Title: On Health Care/Looking Out for People, Democrats Have An Advantage; On Process/Government, Many Don’t Trust Either

Americans want compromise, but not on health care

Asked whether Democrats should compromise or hold to their principles, Americans say compromise by 14 points.

Democrats should hold their ground on their principles, even if it means that the government shutdown continues.

However, when asked whether Democrats should compromise, even if it means health care costs going up, Americans say do not compromise by 2 points, including by 29 points among independents.

Democrats should hold their ground to make sure that health care isn’t taken away and that costs don’t go up any more than they already have, even if it means that the government shutdown continues

The Vibes

As the shutdown continues, President Trump’s overall approval rating (-10) and economic job approval (-15) remain underwater. Trump’s approval on both metrics remain nearly identical to polling from last month, indicating the shutdown may not be having an impact on him, yet.

Bar chart from Navigator Research. Title: Trump’s Overall and Economic Approval Ratings Remain Negative; His Economic Rating Continues to Decline

There has, however, been worsening economic perceptions in light of the shutdown, as 70 percent rate the economy negatively (a 5-point drop since last month) and 58 percent say they feel uneasy about their personal finances. The top concerning consequence of the government shutdown is the shutdown harming the U.S. economy, potentially costing billions of dollars each week and increasing unemployment.

It’s not just Democrats who feel negative on the state of the economy, but also independents, non-MAGA Republicans, and those who are undecided on who to blame for the shutdown.

Bar chart from Navigator Research. Title: Economic Harms, Delayed/Denied Paychecks, Defunding Food Programs Most Concerning on Shutdown Consequences

Health care programs like Medicaid (+62) and the Affordable Care Act (ACA) (+35) remain overwhelmingly popular. “Obamacare” is also viewed favorably by 21 points, but the ACA is narrowly favored by Republicans while “Obamacare” is deeply underwater among this group.

Bar chart from Navigator Research. Title: Views of Medicaid and the ACA Are Positive Across Party Lines; Obamacare Is Net Positive, But Sees Some Polarization

Americans continue to trust Democrats over Trump and Republicans to handle health care (51 percent Democrats – 36 percent Trump and Republicans), including independents by 19 points.

More believe Democrats in Congress are focused on the right things (50%right things – 43 percent wrong things) while Republicans in Congress are underwater on the same measure (46 percent right things – 48 percent wrong things). A plurality of independents think both Democrats and Republicans are focused on the wrong things.

Bar chart from Navigator Research. Title: Americans Say the Democratic Party Is More Focused on the Right Things Than the Republican Party, Though Views Are Mixed

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Feeling the pressure of rising grocery costs Battleground voters lay the blame on Trump and Republicans in Congress

Poll: Tariffs

This Navigator Research report covers perceptions of tariffs in the House battleground.

Seven in ten believe tariffs have increased costs, and half believe the worst of cost increases is yet to come. Americans living in the House battleground are clear on the impact tariffs are having on their lives with 69 percent believing tariffs have increased costs. They are also clear on who’s causing it. 54 percent of battleground constituents say President Trump’s policies are making costs go up, including 60 percent of independents. 50 percent of battleground constituents believe the worst of cost increases is yet to come, including 52 percent of generic ballot persuadables in the survey.

Bar chart from Navigator Research. Title: Nearly 7-in-10 Battleground Constituents Say That Tariffs Have Increased Costs So Far
Bar chart from Navigator Research. Title: A Majority Of Battleground Constituents Think Trump's Policies Are Increasing Costs

Grocery costs are seen as increasing the most as a result of tariffs – and are seen as mattering the most to battleground Americans’ budgets. Food cost increases have been felt most acutely, with 54 percent of battleground constituents believing the cost of groceries has increased the most as a result of tariffs. Other categories of goods fall well behind, with the next leading cost increase coming from imported goods at 12 percent and cars and auto parts at 9 percent.

Rising food costs are particularly impactful for battleground constituents because 87 percent say groceries matter most to their personal budget. This is followed by utilities and health insurance at 59 percent and 35 percent, respectively.

Bar chart from Navigator Research. Title: Grocery Prices Are The Most Common Cost That Battleground Constituents Have Seen Increase Because Of Tariffs
Bar chart from Navigator Research. Title: The Increase In The Price Of Groceries, Utilities, And Health Insurance Have Caused The Most Strain On The Budget Of Battleground Constituents

Battleground constituents believe Donald Trump is most to blame for price increases from tariffs. 43 percent believe Donald Trump is to blame for price increases from tariffs while 35 percent blame congressional Republicans and Trump equally. Only 20 percent blame congressional Republicans exclusively for price increases from tariffs. After learning Republicans in Congress have voted three times this year to support tariffs, 52 percent of battleground constituents believe Republicans in Congress are “extremely responsible” for tariffs, including 50 percent of independents.

Bar chart from Navigator Research. Title: Battleground Constituents Think Trump Is Most To Blame On Tariffs And About A Third Believe Trump and Republicans Share Equal Blame
Bar chart from Navigator Research. Title: A Majority Of Battleground Constituents, Including Half Of Independents, View Republicans In Congress As Extremely Responsible For Tariffs

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Where Things Stand in the Battleground

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Americans in the Battleground Want Congress to Protect Health Care — Even If It Means Shutting Down the Government

Poll: Government Shutdown

This Navigator Research report covers perceptions of a potential government shutdown, rising costs among House battleground constituents.

66 percent of Americans have heard “a lot” or “some” about a potential government shutdown, with 21 percent having heard “a lot.” Only 32 of battleground Americans say they’ve heard “nothing” or “a little” about a potential shutdown.

Bar chart from Navigator Research. Title: A Majority of Battleground Constituents Have Heard About the Potential Government Shutdown, But Only 21% Have Heard A Lot

More would blame Republicans than Democrats for a shutdown, but not by much: 44 percent of battleground constituents would blame Democrats in Congress, while 49 percent would blame Trump and Republicans in Congress. This is a departure from our flagship survey, in which a similar share of Americans said they would blame Republicans (45 percent), but there was much more division between blaming Democrats (26 percent) and blaming both sides equally (21 percent).

In the battleground survey, Republicans were far less likely to say “both sides equally,” which likely explains the drop-off. Independents were also much more inclined to blame Republicans rather than both equally: 55 percent would blame Trump and Republicans, 33 percent would blame Democrats, and only 6 percent said they would blame both equally — a significant shift from the 42 percent who blamed both equally in our national survey.

Bar chart from Navigator Research. Title: Half of Battleground Constituents Would Blame Trump And Republicans In Congress If The Government Were To Shutdown

A shutdown would be serious, but many see it as worthwhile to protect people from other bad recent decisions. This included holding the line against funding cuts for health care and ACA tax credits, as well as fighting to remove tariffs. This sentiment persists despite battleground constituents being clear that they believe a shutdown would be “a serious problem for the country” (66 percent) and that it would have a personal impact on them (53 percent).

Bar chart from Navigator Research. Title: A Third Of Battleground Constituents Thinks A Government Shutdown Would Cause Very Serious Problems For The Country

Specifically, protecting health care and opposing tariffs are the top-testing reasons to shut down the government. 49 percent of battleground constituents agreed that “Congress should let the government shut down to hold the line against funding cuts for healthcare programs and keeping tariffs in place,” compared to 34 percent who agreed that “Congress should pass a bill to keep the government open, even if it means funding cuts for healthcare programs and keeping tariffs in place.” Health care and costs evoke the largest pro-shutdown margin, consistent with our other budget priority tests.

Bar chart from Navigator Research. Title: Battleground Constituents Support Shutting Down The Government By The Widest Margin When Health Care And Tariffs Are Included

A partisan shutdown debate narrows our advantage. When testing the Republican position that “Republicans in Congress should make sure the government stays open and keep the current budget in place without making concessions” against two Democratic positions, both Democratic frames earned a slight plurality (44 percent and 45 percent) compared to 40 percent support for the Republican statement in both tests.

Our post-messaging test underscored how messaging with partisan queues entrenches blame. Respondents heard two Democratic messages: one emphasizing Democrats’ efforts to work with Republicans, and another taking a harder line blaming Republicans for attacks on Medicaid and higher costs for working families. Even after exposure to both messages, results barely moved. Initially, 44 percent of Americans said they would blame Democrats in Congress for a hypothetical shutdown and 49 percent said they would blame Trump and Republicans. After messaging, those numbers remained essentially unchanged: 45 percent blaming Democrats and 49 percent blaming Trump and Republicans.

Messaging slide from Navigator Research. Title: Republican Arguments To Blame Democrats Fail To Move The Needle Against Democratic Framing About Costs

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